NBA games

MIN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
107–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28243520107
DAL33272729116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DAL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 43 26 9 9
Mike Conley S 31 16 1 4
Jaden McDaniels S 32 15 1 0
Naz Reid 29 14 3 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 14 11 3
Kyle Anderson 17 10 0 3
Rudy Gobert S 29 9 6 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20 3 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 41 33 7 5
Kyrie Irving S 42 33 3 4
P.J. Washington S 40 16 8 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 33 11 2 2
Jaden Hardy 11 7 2 0
Dereck Lively II 9 6 3 2
Daniel Gafford S 29 5 3 1
Josh Green 25 3 2 2
Dwight Powell 8 2 2 0
Dante Exum 1 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · Layup (2 pts) · 10:45 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 1-foot layup (Rudy Gobert assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
13%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
7 Mike Conley MIN
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
18%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.8 9.1 9.0
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.6 5.6 6.4
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 20.0 3.6 5.7
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.7 8.3 3.0
5 P.J. Washington DAL 14.1 6.5 1.8
6 Mike Conley MIN 12.2 3.9 5.7
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.0 4.1 1.6
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.7 9.9 1.5
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.0 7.4 1.1
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 10.9 3.8 1.5
11 Naz Reid MIN 10.7 4.2 1.1
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.7 7.9 1.7
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.9 2.1 1.8
14 Josh Green DAL 6.1 2.3 1.4
15 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 4.9 1.9 0.7
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.8 2.8 2.2
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.7 1.2 1.1
18 Brandon Williams DAL 3.6 1.2 1.0
19 Markieff Morris DAL 3.3 1.3 0.7
20 Greg Brown III DAL 3.2 2.1 0.6
21 Alex Fudge DAL 3.2 1.6 0.5
22 Daishen Nix MIN 2.9 0.9 0.7
23 Luka Garza MIN 2.8 0.9 0.3
24 Dante Exum DAL 2.8 1.1 0.8
25 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.9 0.9 0.4
26 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 1.8 0.7 0.9
27 Josh Minott MIN 1.7 0.7 0.4
28 Monte Morris MIN 1.7 0.8 0.8
29 T.J. Warren MIN 1.6 1.1 0.5
30 Leonard Miller MIN 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.