NBA games

DAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
109–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26223130109
MIN32282622108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIN
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 41 32 10 13
Kyrie Irving S 39 20 4 6
Daniel Gafford S 21 16 5 0
Dereck Lively II 27 14 9 2
P.J. Washington S 38 10 5 0
Jaden Hardy 12 8 1 1
Josh Green 21 5 6 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 33 4 4 1
Dante Exum 3 0 0 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid 32 23 2 0
Anthony Edwards S 40 21 5 7
Mike Conley S 33 18 5 5
Rudy Gobert S 38 16 10 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 26 15 7 3
Kyle Anderson 20 7 5 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 14 6 1 2
Jaden McDaniels S 36 2 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
7 Mike Conley MIN
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
36%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.5 8.9 9.5
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.0 6.0 6.5
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.1 3.9 5.7
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.6 8.7 3.2
5 P.J. Washington DAL 13.9 6.3 1.9
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.1 4.0 1.7
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.1 9.8 1.7
8 Mike Conley MIN 12.1 3.7 5.6
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.6 4.1 1.5
10 Naz Reid MIN 10.3 3.9 1.2
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.5 6.8 1.1
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.8 7.5 1.6
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.8 2.0 2.1
14 Josh Green DAL 5.6 1.9 1.2
15 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 4.9 1.9 0.8
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.0 2.6 1.9
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.7 1.2 1.2
18 Markieff Morris DAL 3.3 1.3 0.6
19 Luka Garza MIN 3.0 0.9 0.3
20 Dante Exum DAL 2.7 1.1 0.7
21 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.0 0.7 0.9
22 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.8 0.9 0.4
23 Monte Morris MIN 1.8 0.8 0.8
24 Josh Minott MIN 1.8 0.7 0.5
25 T.J. Warren MIN 1.6 1.0 0.5
26 Leonard Miller MIN 1.2 0.6 0.4
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.1 0.7 0.4
28 Dwight Powell DAL 1.0 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.