NBA games

DAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
108–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL27322326108
MIN33292122105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIN
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 41 33 6 8
Kyrie Irving S 40 30 5 4
P.J. Washington S 41 13 7 0
Daniel Gafford S 21 10 9 0
Dereck Lively II 27 9 11 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 35 8 4 2
Josh Green 13 3 1 0
Jaden Hardy 9 2 1 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 10 0 4 0
Dante Exum 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 39 24 4 3
Anthony Edwards S 41 19 11 8
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 16 7 2
Naz Reid 24 15 5 2
Rudy Gobert S 38 12 7 1
Kyle Anderson 17 11 2 2
Mike Conley S 31 6 3 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 16 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:37 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
14%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 Kyrie Irving DAL
9%
7 Mike Conley MIN
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
35%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.9 9.6 8.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.0 5.6 6.4
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.3 3.7 5.7
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.5 8.8 3.1
5 P.J. Washington DAL 13.7 6.2 1.8
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.2 10.2 1.7
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.0 4.5 1.6
8 Mike Conley MIN 11.9 3.7 5.7
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.6 4.0 1.3
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.1 6.6 1.0
11 Naz Reid MIN 9.0 3.6 1.0
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.8 2.1 2.4
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.5 6.7 1.2
14 Josh Green DAL 5.0 2.0 1.1
15 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 4.4 1.4 0.7
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.9 1.2 0.9
17 Markieff Morris DAL 3.3 1.3 0.6
18 Luka Garza MIN 3.2 0.9 0.3
19 Kyle Anderson MIN 2.9 2.2 1.6
20 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.2 0.7 0.9
21 Monte Morris MIN 2.0 0.9 0.8
22 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 0.7 0.5
23 Dante Exum DAL 1.8 0.7 0.5
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.8 0.9 0.4
25 T.J. Warren MIN 1.6 1.0 0.5
26 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.3 0.7 0.4
27 Leonard Miller MIN 1.2 0.7 0.3
28 Dwight Powell DAL 1.0 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.