NBA games

BOS @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
105–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS29292225105
IND27302619102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home IND
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 44 29 6 2
Jayson Tatum S 44 26 13 8
Jrue Holiday S 38 17 9 2
Derrick White S 42 16 4 4
Al Horford S 40 7 8 5
Sam Hauser 14 5 1 1
Payton Pritchard 9 5 1 0
Xavier Tillman 9 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 39 24 6 10
Pascal Siakam S 39 19 10 3
T.J. McConnell 25 15 5 4
Aaron Nesmith S 35 14 6 1
Obi Toppin 29 12 7 2
Myles Turner S 27 8 4 1
Isaiah Jackson 12 4 5 0
Ben Sheppard S 21 3 3 0
Doug McDermott 13 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
17%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
7 Al Horford BOS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
30%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.6 9.7 5.8
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.9 5.6 3.2
3 Pascal Siakam IND 22.7 6.6 3.6
4 Derrick White BOS 17.7 4.5 4.6
5 Myles Turner IND 16.5 6.4 2.1
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 15.4 5.7 4.9
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 15.3 3.4 5.5
8 T.J. McConnell IND 13.1 3.7 5.3
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.7 5.1 1.9
10 Al Horford BOS 10.4 6.9 1.6
11 Obi Toppin IND 9.1 3.3 1.8
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.3 2.3 2.1
13 Ben Sheppard IND 6.4 2.8 1.3
14 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.6 3.6 0.7
15 Sam Hauser BOS 4.5 2.2 0.7
16 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.3 1.3 0.8
17 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.9 2.0 0.8
18 Neemias Queta BOS 3.9 3.1 0.6
19 Doug McDermott IND 3.5 1.1 0.7
20 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.2 2.8 0.5
21 Luke Kornet BOS 3.1 3.3 0.4
22 Jaden Springer BOS 2.4 1.1 0.6
23 Jarace Walker IND 1.9 0.9 0.4
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.6 1.1 0.3
25 Kendall Brown IND 1.5 0.8 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.1 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.