NBA games

BOS @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
114–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS32252433114
IND31382121111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home IND
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 44 36 10 8
Jaylen Brown S 38 24 2 3
Al Horford S 35 23 5 0
Jrue Holiday S 38 14 9 3
Derrick White S 35 13 5 7
Payton Pritchard 14 2 2 3
Xavier Tillman 13 2 1 0
Sam Hauser 13 0 1 0
Oshae Brissett 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 39 32 4 9
T.J. McConnell 29 23 9 6
Myles Turner S 39 22 10 1
Pascal Siakam S 36 22 3 6
Obi Toppin 23 4 3 3
Aaron Nesmith S 34 4 5 4
Doug McDermott 4 2 1 2
Isaiah Jackson 9 2 5 0
Ben Sheppard S 26 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Layup (2 pts) · 11:52 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 4-foot two point shot (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
3 Myles Turner IND
12%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
5 Al Horford BOS
10%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
9 Derrick White BOS
8%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
53%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.8 9.6 5.4
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.1 6.1 3.3
3 Pascal Siakam IND 21.9 6.7 3.6
4 Derrick White BOS 17.7 4.5 4.5
5 Myles Turner IND 15.3 6.0 2.1
6 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.8 3.4 4.9
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.4 4.8 5.0
8 T.J. McConnell IND 12.5 3.1 5.6
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.7 4.6 1.9
10 Obi Toppin IND 10.3 3.7 1.8
11 Al Horford BOS 10.0 6.6 1.7
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.1 2.4 1.9
13 Ben Sheppard IND 6.1 2.8 1.3
14 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 5.2 1.6 1.0
15 Sam Hauser BOS 4.7 2.0 0.7
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.6 3.1 0.7
17 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.1 2.1 0.9
18 Neemias Queta BOS 3.9 3.1 0.6
19 Jalen Smith IND 3.9 2.4 0.7
20 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.5 2.6 0.6
21 Doug McDermott IND 3.4 1.0 0.7
22 Jarace Walker IND 2.7 1.2 0.7
23 Jaden Springer BOS 2.4 1.1 0.6
24 Kendall Brown IND 2.3 0.9 0.6
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.6 1.1 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.