NBA games

IND @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
110–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND27242930110
BOS25323633126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BOS
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 31 28 5 2
Andrew Nembhard S 26 16 2 5
Obi Toppin 22 11 3 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 28 10 4 8
Aaron Nesmith S 25 9 3 1
T.J. McConnell 17 9 5 3
Myles Turner S 24 8 4 0
Ben Sheppard 23 7 2 1
Jalen Smith 7 4 2 0
Jarace Walker 5 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 40 5 2
Jayson Tatum S 42 23 6 5
Derrick White S 36 23 4 6
Jrue Holiday S 37 15 4 10
Payton Pritchard 19 12 2 2
Al Horford S 25 6 10 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 1 3 0 0
Oshae Brissett 12 2 3 0
Sam Hauser 22 2 4 3
Xavier Tillman 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 2-foot dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
15%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
4 Myles Turner IND
11%
5 Al Horford BOS
9%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
34%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.5 10.0 5.4
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.1 6.4 3.4
3 Pascal Siakam IND 20.9 6.6 3.5
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.5 4.4 7.0
5 Derrick White BOS 17.5 4.3 4.3
6 Myles Turner IND 15.3 6.0 2.1
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.4 4.8 4.5
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.2 3.5 4.8
9 T.J. McConnell IND 11.9 2.9 5.3
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.8 4.6 1.8
11 Obi Toppin IND 10.4 3.8 2.0
12 Al Horford BOS 10.1 6.5 2.0
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.4 2.3 2.1
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.0 2.9 1.2
15 Sam Hauser BOS 5.0 1.8 0.6
16 Luke Kornet BOS 4.9 4.2 0.9
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.2 3.2 0.6
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.0 3.1 0.6
19 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.9 1.3 0.8
20 Jalen Smith IND 3.8 2.3 0.7
21 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.9 1.6 0.7
22 Doug McDermott IND 2.5 0.6 0.3
23 Jaden Springer BOS 2.4 1.2 0.6
24 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.3 2.0 0.4
25 Jarace Walker IND 1.7 0.8 0.4
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.6 1.1 0.4
27 Kendall Brown IND 1.5 0.7 0.3
28 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.