NBA games

IND @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
128–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
IND3133292411128
BOS3430302316133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BOS
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 40 25 3 10
Pascal Siakam S 42 24 12 7
Myles Turner S 39 23 10 4
Obi Toppin 22 15 4 2
Aaron Nesmith S 40 14 6 1
T.J. McConnell 25 13 3 4
Andrew Nembhard S 35 12 3 7
Ben Sheppard 17 2 3 2
Jalen Smith 1 0 0 1
Isaiah Jackson 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 46 36 12 4
Jrue Holiday S 48 28 7 8
Jaylen Brown S 44 26 7 5
Al Horford S 40 15 6 1
Derrick White S 42 15 6 9
Payton Pritchard 23 8 0 2
Luke Kornet 13 5 4 1
Sam Hauser 9 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes dunk (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
15%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
4 Myles Turner IND
11%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Al Horford BOS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
40%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.8 9.6 5.7
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.1 6.4 3.1
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.5 4.4 6.3
4 Pascal Siakam IND 19.0 6.5 3.4
5 Derrick White BOS 17.3 3.9 3.4
6 Myles Turner IND 15.2 5.9 2.1
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.4 3.4 4.8
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.2 4.5 3.5
9 T.J. McConnell IND 11.0 2.9 5.5
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.4 4.1 1.7
11 Obi Toppin IND 10.2 3.6 1.9
12 Al Horford BOS 9.4 6.3 1.6
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.7 2.2 2.0
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.1 2.7 1.1
15 Sam Hauser BOS 4.4 1.4 0.5
16 Luke Kornet BOS 4.3 4.3 0.8
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.1 3.0 0.7
18 Jalen Smith IND 3.9 2.6 0.7
19 Neemias Queta BOS 3.9 3.0 0.6
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.8 1.2 0.8
21 Doug McDermott IND 2.9 0.7 0.5
22 Jarace Walker IND 2.5 1.1 0.6
23 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.3 2.0 0.4
24 Jaden Springer BOS 2.3 1.2 0.6
25 Kendall Brown IND 2.2 0.8 0.5
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.6 1.1 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.