NBA games

CLE @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
98–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE2824262098
BOS28302728113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BOS
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 43 33 7 4
Marcus Morris Sr. 34 25 3 0
Max Strus S 45 12 7 9
Darius Garland S 44 11 0 9
Sam Merrill 28 9 2 0
Isaac Okoro S 12 5 3 1
Dean Wade S 22 3 2 2
Georges Niang 8 0 1 0
Tristan Thompson 5 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 43 25 10 9
Al Horford S 35 22 15 5
Derrick White S 36 18 5 6
Jrue Holiday S 41 13 3 4
Jaylen Brown S 41 11 4 7
Payton Pritchard 21 11 1 0
Luke Kornet 12 8 1 0
Sam Hauser 10 5 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Max Strus makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Max Strus CLE
8%
8 Caris LeVert CLE
6%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
6%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
26%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.9 5.1 5.2
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.0 9.8 5.7
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.9 6.5 2.6
4 Darius Garland CLE 16.7 4.0 5.2
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.4 9.2 2.1
6 Derrick White BOS 15.6 3.9 3.2
7 Evan Mobley CLE 15.2 8.9 2.4
8 Caris LeVert CLE 10.9 3.8 2.1
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.7 5.0 3.3
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.6 3.2 3.3
11 Max Strus CLE 9.4 4.3 2.2
12 Al Horford BOS 8.1 5.6 1.6
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.5 1.9 1.4
14 Dean Wade CLE 5.9 2.7 1.0
15 Sam Hauser BOS 5.8 2.1 0.7
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.2 4.7 1.0
17 Georges Niang CLE 5.1 1.4 0.7
18 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.8 1.6 1.0
19 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 4.3 2.1 0.6
20 Neemias Queta BOS 4.3 3.7 0.6
21 Sam Merrill CLE 3.5 1.2 0.9
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.0 2.2 0.8
23 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.0 1.8 0.7
24 Jaden Springer BOS 3.0 1.7 0.8
25 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.9 2.5 0.5
26 Damian Jones CLE 2.3 0.9 0.3
27 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.2 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.