NBA games

BOS @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
109–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS37252621109
CLE30272124102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CLE
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 44 33 11 5
Jaylen Brown S 34 27 8 1
Jrue Holiday S 43 16 7 5
Payton Pritchard 26 11 1 1
Luke Kornet 19 9 6 0
Al Horford S 28 6 6 0
Derrick White S 30 5 7 3
Sam Hauser 15 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 40 30 3 7
Evan Mobley S 39 19 9 3
Caris LeVert S 39 19 5 3
Max Strus S 43 15 7 7
Sam Merrill 17 7 2 2
Tristan Thompson 9 4 2 2
Georges Niang 8 3 0 0
Dean Wade 25 3 1 0
Isaac Okoro S 21 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Max Strus makes 27-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Max Strus CLE
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
6%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
24%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.5 5.1 5.2
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.0 8.8 5.5
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.4 6.7 2.5
4 Derrick White BOS 17.0 3.6 3.3
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.4 9.1 2.2
6 Darius Garland CLE 15.5 4.0 5.2
7 Evan Mobley CLE 14.4 9.3 2.2
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.0 3.5 4.3
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.4 5.0 3.3
10 Max Strus CLE 10.0 4.5 1.9
11 Caris LeVert CLE 9.9 3.5 2.2
12 Al Horford BOS 8.0 5.6 1.7
13 Sam Hauser BOS 6.9 2.4 0.9
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.8 2.0 1.4
15 Dean Wade CLE 5.5 3.0 1.1
16 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 5.3 1.8 1.0
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.2 4.6 1.0
18 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 4.9 2.3 0.7
19 Georges Niang CLE 4.5 1.3 0.6
20 Neemias Queta BOS 4.3 3.8 0.6
21 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.5 2.8 0.5
22 Jaden Springer BOS 3.5 2.0 0.8
23 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.0 1.8 0.6
24 Sam Merrill CLE 3.0 1.3 0.9
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.7 1.7 0.6
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.7 2.0 0.8
27 Damian Jones CLE 2.2 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.