NBA games

BOS @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
106–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30272722106
CLE2820212493

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CLE
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 42 33 13 6
Jaylen Brown S 41 28 9 3
Jrue Holiday S 38 18 8 5
Derrick White S 37 12 3 3
Sam Hauser 10 6 0 0
Payton Pritchard 22 5 3 3
Luke Kornet 8 2 1 0
Al Horford S 39 2 7 2
Svi Mykhailiuk 1 0 0 0
Jordan Walsh 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 43 33 6 3
Evan Mobley S 37 17 8 1
Caris LeVert 30 15 6 1
Darius Garland S 38 15 3 6
Max Strus S 37 6 5 2
Dean Wade 17 5 3 3
Isaac Okoro S 18 2 1 1
Tristan Thompson 5 0 2 0
Sam Merrill 11 0 0 0
Marcus Morris Sr. 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:37 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
6 Darius Garland CLE
8%
7 Max Strus CLE
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
14%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.1 4.8 5.4
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.3 6.1 2.4
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 21.8 8.0 5.5
4 Derrick White BOS 17.5 3.5 4.0
5 Darius Garland CLE 16.6 3.8 5.1
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.4 9.5 2.2
7 Evan Mobley CLE 14.3 8.9 2.5
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.3 3.8 4.6
9 Max Strus CLE 10.1 5.0 2.7
10 Caris LeVert CLE 10.1 3.5 2.5
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.0 4.4 3.1
12 Al Horford BOS 8.5 5.5 1.7
13 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 2.7 1.1
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.4 2.0 1.6
15 Georges Niang CLE 5.5 1.6 0.8
16 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 5.4 1.8 1.2
17 Dean Wade CLE 5.4 2.8 0.9
18 Luke Kornet BOS 5.2 4.6 1.1
19 Neemias Queta BOS 5.1 4.1 0.8
20 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 4.8 2.2 0.7
21 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.9 2.3 0.9
22 Jaden Springer BOS 3.7 1.9 0.9
23 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.4 2.8 0.5
24 Sam Merrill CLE 3.1 1.2 0.9
25 Damian Jones CLE 3.1 1.3 0.6
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.6 2.0 0.6
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.6 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.