NBA games

CLE @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
118–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE30243628118
BOS2430241694

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BOS
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 39 29 7 8
Caris LeVert 27 21 6 3
Evan Mobley S 33 21 10 5
Darius Garland S 34 14 7 4
Isaac Okoro S 21 12 1 0
Max Strus S 40 12 6 1
Marcus Morris Sr. 16 4 0 0
Georges Niang 14 4 3 1
Tristan Thompson 10 1 3 2
Damian Jones 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 25 7 6
Jaylen Brown S 31 19 4 1
Payton Pritchard 20 13 2 4
Al Horford S 29 11 2 1
Derrick White S 30 10 4 5
Jrue Holiday S 35 4 2 3
Luke Kornet 12 3 3 0
Oshae Brissett 5 3 1 0
Jordan Walsh 5 2 1 0
Sam Hauser 9 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
5 Darius Garland CLE
9%
6 Max Strus CLE
8%
7 Evan Mobley CLE
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
6%
10 Derrick White BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
37%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
18%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.8 4.7 5.3
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.4 6.7 3.0
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 21.7 8.1 5.2
4 Derrick White BOS 17.0 3.4 4.1
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.5 9.6 2.1
6 Darius Garland CLE 16.4 4.0 5.6
7 Evan Mobley CLE 13.4 8.7 2.2
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.3 3.7 4.6
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.5 4.5 3.6
10 Max Strus CLE 10.1 4.9 3.2
11 Caris LeVert CLE 9.6 3.2 2.2
12 Al Horford BOS 9.1 5.6 1.7
13 Sam Hauser BOS 7.8 3.0 1.3
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.8 2.1 1.4
15 Neemias Queta BOS 6.0 4.5 1.0
16 Georges Niang CLE 5.4 1.7 0.7
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.4 5.2 1.2
18 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.5 2.4 0.9
19 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 4.3 2.2 0.6
20 Sam Merrill CLE 4.2 1.5 1.2
21 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.8 1.2 1.0
22 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.3 3.0 0.6
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.6 1.8 0.6
24 Jaden Springer BOS 2.5 1.4 0.6
25 Damian Jones CLE 1.9 1.1 0.3
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.4 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.