NBA games

CLE @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
95–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE3415281895
BOS40193328120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BOS
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 33 6 5
Evan Mobley S 32 17 13 3
Darius Garland S 36 14 3 5
Isaac Okoro S 29 11 1 1
Max Strus S 35 5 2 0
Caris LeVert 26 4 7 3
Tristan Thompson 16 4 2 1
Georges Niang 4 4 1 0
Marcus Morris Sr. 9 3 3 0
Sam Merrill 17 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 34 32 6 2
Derrick White S 33 25 1 5
Jayson Tatum S 35 18 11 5
Payton Pritchard 24 16 5 2
Jrue Holiday S 36 14 6 2
Al Horford S 27 7 8 4
Luke Kornet 21 4 10 2
Neemias Queta 3 2 2 0
Xavier Tillman 7 2 3 0
Oshae Brissett 3 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
5 Darius Garland CLE
9%
6 Evan Mobley CLE
8%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
8 Jordan Walsh BOS
7%
9 Al Horford BOS
6%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
27%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.3 4.8 5.5
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 22.3 8.0 5.2
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.8 6.9 3.3
4 Darius Garland CLE 17.2 4.0 5.8
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.4 10.0 2.1
6 Derrick White BOS 16.1 3.8 3.9
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.3 3.6 5.1
8 Evan Mobley CLE 12.6 8.4 1.9
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.2 4.6 3.5
10 Max Strus CLE 10.1 5.3 3.4
11 Caris LeVert CLE 10.1 3.1 2.2
12 Al Horford BOS 9.0 5.3 1.5
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.3 3.0 1.3
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.4 2.4 1.4
15 Georges Niang CLE 5.1 1.8 0.8
16 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 4.8 2.1 0.7
17 Neemias Queta BOS 4.5 3.5 0.7
18 Luke Kornet BOS 4.3 4.0 0.9
19 Sam Merrill CLE 4.2 1.4 1.2
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.2 1.2 1.0
21 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.6 1.8 0.8
22 Jaden Springer BOS 2.8 1.5 0.6
23 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.6 2.5 0.5
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.3 1.8 0.6
25 Damian Jones CLE 1.8 1.1 0.3
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.4 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.