NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
130–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND39313129130
NY27282925109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 33 26 4 6
Pascal Siakam S 37 20 4 4
Andrew Nembhard S 34 20 5 6
Aaron Nesmith S 28 19 4 1
Myles Turner S 33 17 5 1
T.J. McConnell 24 12 2 7
Isaiah Jackson 10 9 1 1
Ben Sheppard 25 4 5 3
Obi Toppin 15 3 3 4
Jarace Walker 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 41 39 4 1
Alec Burks 27 26 3 2
Jalen Brunson S 29 17 0 9
Josh Hart S 37 10 8 5
Miles McBride 40 8 5 2
OG Anunoby S 5 5 0 0
Precious Achiuwa 28 4 0 1
Jericho Sims 1 0 0 0
Shake Milton 1 0 0 0
DaQuan Jeffries 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
9%
4 Josh Hart NY
9%
5 OG Anunoby NY
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
8%
9 Miles McBride NY
7%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
26%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.9 2.8 9.4
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.0 4.7 8.0
3 Pascal Siakam IND 19.3 6.9 3.7
4 Myles Turner IND 17.7 6.1 2.3
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 15.7 4.3 2.6
6 OG Anunoby NY 14.1 5.2 1.6
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.3 3.4 5.1
8 Josh Hart NY 12.5 10.4 5.1
9 Obi Toppin IND 11.5 4.0 1.9
10 T.J. McConnell IND 11.0 2.9 5.5
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.8 4.8 1.9
12 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.5 7.4 3.5
13 Miles McBride NY 10.1 2.4 1.8
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.5 2.7 1.2
15 Alec Burks NY 6.5 2.3 1.0
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.9 4.6 0.8
17 Jalen Smith IND 4.7 2.9 0.9
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.0 3.3 0.7
19 Doug McDermott IND 3.6 1.1 0.7
20 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.3 2.0 0.6
21 Jarace Walker IND 2.9 1.4 0.8
22 Shake Milton NY 2.9 1.3 0.7
23 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.8 1.2 0.7
24 Jericho Sims NY 2.6 2.4 0.6
25 Kendall Brown IND 2.4 1.2 0.6
26 James Johnson IND 1.6 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.