NBA games

NY @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
103–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY30212428103
IND29322728116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home IND
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 31 1 5
Miles McBride S 35 20 2 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 39 17 4 2
Precious Achiuwa 26 12 8 0
Alec Burks 25 11 3 1
Josh Hart S 31 5 8 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 4 7 6
DaQuan Jeffries 3 3 0 0
Jericho Sims 4 0 1 1
Mamadi Diakite 3 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 31 25 7 5
Myles Turner S 31 17 8 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 15 6 9
Andrew Nembhard S 38 15 6 6
T.J. McConnell 16 15 2 4
Obi Toppin 19 11 4 1
Aaron Nesmith S 31 8 6 4
Ben Sheppard 19 4 4 0
Isaiah Jackson 12 4 3 3
Kendall Brown 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Haliburton · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
2 Josh Hart NY
10%
3 OG Anunoby NY
10%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 Donte DiVincenzo NY
8%
8 Jalen Brunson NY
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.2 3.4 7.6
2 Pascal Siakam IND 21.2 7.0 3.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.5 4.6 8.4
4 Myles Turner IND 17.7 5.9 2.6
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 15.6 4.3 2.7
6 OG Anunoby NY 14.1 5.4 1.6
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.9 3.3 4.6
8 Josh Hart NY 12.9 9.8 4.0
9 Obi Toppin IND 11.1 4.2 1.8
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.0 7.6 3.1
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.0 4.6 2.1
12 T.J. McConnell IND 9.6 2.7 5.2
13 Miles McBride NY 9.3 2.2 1.6
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.1 2.5 1.1
15 Alec Burks NY 5.5 2.1 0.8
16 Jalen Smith IND 4.9 3.4 0.9
17 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.7 4.2 0.7
18 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.6 1.7 0.5
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.5 3.4 0.6
20 Quenton Jackson IND 3.5 1.4 1.0
21 Shake Milton NY 3.2 1.4 0.7
22 Doug McDermott IND 3.2 0.8 0.7
23 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 3.2 1.7 0.6
24 Jacob Toppin NY 2.9 1.4 0.5
25 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 2.5 1.0 0.5
26 Jarace Walker IND 2.3 1.0 0.8
27 Isaiah Wong IND 2.2 1.0 0.8
28 Jericho Sims NY 2.0 2.1 0.5
29 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.9 0.9 0.5
30 Kendall Brown IND 1.9 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.