NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
91–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND3222211691
NY38312725121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 22 8 2
Myles Turner S 30 16 5 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 13 2 5
Andrew Nembhard S 28 11 2 4
Aaron Nesmith S 28 8 4 2
T.J. McConnell 19 7 0 5
Obi Toppin 21 7 5 2
Ben Sheppard 25 6 0 2
James Johnson 1 1 0 0
Doug McDermott 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 43 44 4 7
Josh Hart S 39 18 11 3
Alec Burks 23 18 5 0
Miles McBride S 40 17 1 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 30 8 7 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 7 17 5
Precious Achiuwa 23 4 5 2
Jericho Sims 3 3 1 0
Shake Milton 3 2 0 1
DaQuan Jeffries 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Nesmith · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Aaron Nesmith makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Josh Hart NY
10%
3 Myles Turner IND
10%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
7 Precious Achiuwa NY
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
35%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.9 3.8 8.2
2 Pascal Siakam IND 21.8 7.7 3.4
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.7 5.1 8.7
4 Myles Turner IND 17.6 6.3 2.4
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 15.8 4.1 2.6
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.3 5.6 1.7
7 Josh Hart NY 15.0 10.7 4.2
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.7 3.1 4.5
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.1 6.9 3.1
10 Obi Toppin IND 10.8 4.3 1.5
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.7 4.7 2.1
12 T.J. McConnell IND 10.1 2.9 4.8
13 Miles McBride NY 9.5 2.3 1.7
14 Jalen Smith IND 6.3 4.6 1.0
15 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 2.7 1.1
16 Alec Burks NY 5.9 2.1 1.0
17 Mamadi Diakite NY 4.7 2.0 0.6
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.6 3.7 0.6
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.1 3.4 0.6
20 Shake Milton NY 4.0 2.0 1.0
21 Doug McDermott IND 3.7 1.0 0.7
22 Jarace Walker IND 2.8 1.3 0.9
23 Jericho Sims NY 2.4 2.3 0.6
24 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.4 1.0 0.6
25 Kendall Brown IND 2.3 1.1 0.6
26 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.