NBA games

OKC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
116–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC30342626116
DAL23253534117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DAL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 43 36 3 8
Jalen Williams S 37 22 9 8
Chet Holmgren S 35 21 3 1
Isaiah Joe S 29 11 3 3
Luguentz Dort S 32 11 3 1
Jaylin Williams 18 6 2 2
Cason Wallace 24 5 0 1
Kenrich Williams 4 2 1 0
Josh Giddey 11 2 4 1
Aaron Wiggins 8 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 45 29 10 10
Kyrie Irving S 42 22 2 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 40 22 4 2
Dereck Lively II 30 12 15 3
Daniel Gafford S 19 10 7 1
P.J. Washington S 30 9 5 2
Josh Green 19 6 2 1
Jaden Hardy 11 5 1 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:54 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes 1-foot dunk (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
19%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
17%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
6 Kyrie Irving DAL
8%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.7 6.9 6.2
2 Luka Doncic DAL 26.6 9.3 10.0
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 21.3 4.0 6.0
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.1 5.9 5.0
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.6 7.7 2.0
6 P.J. Washington DAL 14.7 6.6 1.8
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.2 4.2 1.3
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.4 4.0 1.8
9 Josh Giddey OKC 9.0 3.5 2.5
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.5 6.2 1.1
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.2 6.5 1.3
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.9 3.2 1.1
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 5.7 1.9 1.0
14 Josh Green DAL 5.7 2.6 1.3
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.3 1.9 0.9
16 Cason Wallace OKC 5.3 1.8 1.1
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.8 1.6 1.1
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.4 3.1 1.2
19 Markieff Morris DAL 3.2 1.4 0.7
20 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.1 0.8 0.5
21 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.6 2.0 0.4
22 Gordon Hayward OKC 2.3 1.7 0.5
23 Mike Muscala OKC 2.3 1.5 0.5
24 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.2 0.7 0.9
25 Kenrich Williams OKC 2.1 1.5 0.9
26 Dante Exum DAL 1.9 0.9 0.6
27 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.7 1.0 0.4
28 Dwight Powell DAL 1.0 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.