NBA games

DAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
104–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL24302525104
OKC2222232592

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home OKC
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 41 31 10 11
Derrick Jones Jr. S 28 19 1 1
Kyrie Irving S 39 12 2 4
Dereck Lively II 23 11 10 1
P.J. Washington S 37 10 10 4
Daniel Gafford S 25 9 7 1
Josh Green 18 5 2 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 12 5 1 0
Jaden Hardy 15 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 43 30 6 8
Chet Holmgren S 39 13 4 1
Jalen Williams S 39 12 6 3
Luguentz Dort S 38 12 6 4
Josh Giddey 12 11 3 2
Isaiah Joe S 22 6 3 0
Jaylin Williams 10 3 1 1
Cason Wallace 27 3 0 0
Aaron Wiggins 11 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
21%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
5 Kyrie Irving DAL
8%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
9 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
10 Josh Giddey OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
38%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.0 7.1 5.8
2 Luka Doncic DAL 27.1 9.6 9.1
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.8 4.4 5.8
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.3 5.6 5.4
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.2 8.3 2.4
6 P.J. Washington DAL 14.5 6.3 1.5
7 Josh Giddey OKC 10.2 4.2 3.2
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.6 4.2 1.2
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.4 3.5 1.8
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.2 3.3 1.4
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.6 5.2 1.0
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.2 6.1 1.1
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 6.3 2.2 1.1
14 Cason Wallace OKC 5.7 1.8 1.2
15 Josh Green DAL 5.2 2.6 1.0
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.1 1.9 1.1
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.1 3.3 1.3
18 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.5 0.9 0.6
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.4 1.1 0.7
20 Markieff Morris DAL 3.1 1.4 0.6
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.0 1.8 1.2
22 Dante Exum DAL 2.7 1.2 0.7
23 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.7 2.0 0.5
24 Gordon Hayward OKC 2.6 1.8 0.5
25 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.4 0.9 1.0
26 Mike Muscala OKC 2.4 1.5 0.5
27 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.9 1.0 0.4
28 Dwight Powell DAL 1.2 2.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.