NBA games

OKC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
100–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC20232235100
DAL3024152796

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DAL
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 42 34 8 5
Chet Holmgren S 40 18 9 0
Luguentz Dort S 40 17 8 0
Jalen Williams S 41 14 9 6
Aaron Wiggins 13 6 1 0
Cason Wallace 19 6 0 0
Josh Giddey S 12 5 0 2
Jaylin Williams 10 0 5 3
Kenrich Williams 8 0 2 1
Isaiah Joe 15 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 41 21 12 0
Luka Doncic S 42 18 12 10
Derrick Jones Jr. S 27 17 3 1
Daniel Gafford S 23 10 8 0
Kyrie Irving S 41 9 1 9
Dereck Lively II 25 7 6 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 23 6 3 1
Dante Exum 5 5 0 1
Josh Green 13 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes alley oop dunk shot (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Luka Doncic DAL
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
10 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
22%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 27.0 7.3 5.7
2 Luka Doncic DAL 26.9 9.3 8.2
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.5 4.4 5.4
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.1 5.6 4.9
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.9 8.0 2.4
6 P.J. Washington DAL 13.3 5.6 1.7
7 Josh Giddey OKC 10.0 4.7 3.4
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 3.3 2.0
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.4 4.1 1.3
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.2 3.4 1.5
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.6 4.7 1.1
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 6.5 5.6 1.1
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 6.4 2.1 1.0
14 Josh Green DAL 5.5 2.8 1.2
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.4 2.1 1.0
16 Cason Wallace OKC 5.3 2.3 1.4
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.2 3.7 1.3
18 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.8 1.1 0.6
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.8 1.2 0.8
20 Gordon Hayward OKC 3.5 2.2 0.7
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.7 1.1 0.9
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 2.5 1.4 1.0
23 Dante Exum DAL 2.4 1.2 0.8
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.1 1.1 0.4
25 Markieff Morris DAL 1.8 0.8 0.4
26 Bismack Biyombo OKC 1.6 1.5 0.2
27 Dwight Powell DAL 1.4 2.3 0.5
28 Mike Muscala OKC 1.3 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.