NBA games

OKC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
101–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC23292623101
DAL26253123105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DAL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 42 31 10 6
Jalen Williams S 38 16 6 8
Chet Holmgren S 35 13 8 3
Isaiah Joe 19 13 2 2
Josh Giddey S 13 9 2 1
Luguentz Dort S 40 8 2 2
Aaron Wiggins 22 6 4 0
Cason Wallace 14 3 1 0
Jaylin Williams 13 2 4 1
Gordon Hayward 3 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 40 27 6 2
Luka Doncic S 40 22 15 5
Kyrie Irving S 41 22 5 7
Dereck Lively II 27 12 8 1
Daniel Gafford S 20 8 5 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 16 8 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 36 3 4 1
Josh Green 15 3 1 1
Dante Exum 6 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes dunk (Kyrie Irving assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
22%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 27.9 7.0 5.8
2 Luka Doncic DAL 27.2 8.8 8.4
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.1 4.9 5.8
4 Jalen Williams OKC 18.7 5.5 4.6
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.8 8.0 2.4
6 Josh Giddey OKC 12.4 6.0 4.4
7 P.J. Washington DAL 12.1 5.8 1.7
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.9 3.3 2.1
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.4 4.1 1.3
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.3 3.5 1.6
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.9 4.8 1.1
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 7.0 2.2 1.2
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 6.7 5.8 1.1
14 Josh Green DAL 5.8 3.0 1.2
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.6 3.6 1.3
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.5 2.3 1.0
17 Cason Wallace OKC 5.5 2.4 1.5
18 Gordon Hayward OKC 4.3 2.2 0.7
19 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.3 1.3 0.7
20 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.3 1.4 1.0
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.2 1.4 1.1
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 2.9 1.6 1.3
23 Dante Exum DAL 2.7 1.5 1.0
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.6 1.3 0.6
25 Dwight Powell DAL 1.9 2.5 0.7
26 Markieff Morris DAL 1.8 0.8 0.4
27 Bismack Biyombo OKC 1.6 1.5 0.2
28 Mike Muscala OKC 1.3 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.