NBA games

DAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
119–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL36323120119
OKC32302721110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home OKC
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 40 29 11 4
Luka Doncic S 41 29 10 7
Tim Hardaway Jr. 19 17 2 1
Daniel Gafford S 27 13 7 2
Josh Green 16 11 1 1
Kyrie Irving S 41 9 3 11
Derrick Jones Jr. S 28 9 5 2
Dereck Lively II 20 2 4 1
Dante Exum 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 41 33 12 8
Jalen Williams S 39 20 4 4
Chet Holmgren S 37 11 6 6
Aaron Wiggins 20 9 2 0
Josh Giddey S 11 8 2 0
Luguentz Dort S 33 8 6 3
Jaylin Williams 14 8 4 2
Isaiah Joe 19 7 1 0
Cason Wallace 22 6 3 1
Gordon Hayward 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 5-foot layup (P.J. Washington assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
6 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
17%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.1 8.9 8.8
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 26.2 6.1 5.3
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.7 5.2 4.9
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.3 5.8 5.0
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.9 8.4 2.1
6 Josh Giddey OKC 13.2 6.9 5.5
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.0 3.1 2.0
8 P.J. Washington DAL 10.2 5.2 1.4
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.1 3.6 2.1
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.2 3.9 1.2
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.3 4.9 1.0
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 6.5 6.1 1.0
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 6.0 2.2 1.3
14 Cason Wallace OKC 5.7 2.5 1.7
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.5 3.4 1.5
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.4 2.2 1.1
17 Josh Green DAL 5.3 3.1 1.1
18 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.8 1.5 0.8
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.7 1.6 1.0
20 Gordon Hayward OKC 4.5 2.2 0.8
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.6 1.6 1.2
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.4 1.9 1.3
23 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.0 1.5 0.6
24 Dante Exum DAL 2.8 1.5 1.0
25 Dwight Powell DAL 2.2 2.6 0.7
26 Markieff Morris DAL 1.7 0.8 0.4
27 Bismack Biyombo OKC 1.5 1.5 0.3
28 Mike Muscala OKC 1.3 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.