NBA games

NY @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
89–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY1427222689
IND34353220121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home IND
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alec Burks 23 20 5 2
Jalen Brunson S 31 18 3 5
Miles McBride 32 16 5 4
Precious Achiuwa S 24 8 6 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 32 7 5 4
DaQuan Jeffries 13 5 3 0
Jericho Sims 16 4 6 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 4 5 0
Shake Milton 15 3 1 1
Josh Hart S 24 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 28 20 6 5
T.J. McConnell 21 15 4 10
Pascal Siakam S 22 14 4 2
Obi Toppin 18 14 1 2
Myles Turner S 26 13 5 2
Isaiah Jackson 19 10 6 0
Andrew Nembhard S 21 9 1 5
Aaron Nesmith S 24 8 12 1
Jalen Smith 10 7 3 1
Ben Sheppard 19 6 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes 1-foot driving dunk (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
2 Myles Turner IND
11%
3 Josh Hart NY
10%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
10%
6 Precious Achiuwa NY
9%
7 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
20%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.7 3.8 7.1
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.6 7.7 3.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.5 4.7 8.9
4 Myles Turner IND 19.2 6.8 2.5
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 17.0 4.1 2.6
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.4 5.7 1.7
7 Josh Hart NY 13.4 7.9 4.3
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.0 3.1 4.5
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.3 7.7 3.3
10 T.J. McConnell IND 10.3 2.8 4.8
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.1 4.0 2.1
12 Obi Toppin IND 9.9 4.3 1.5
13 Miles McBride NY 8.8 2.2 1.6
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 2.7 1.2
15 Alec Burks NY 5.1 2.0 0.9
16 Mamadi Diakite NY 4.7 2.2 0.5
17 Jalen Smith IND 4.7 4.2 0.7
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.3 3.8 0.6
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.2 3.6 0.6
20 Shake Milton NY 4.0 2.2 0.9
21 Jericho Sims NY 2.6 2.6 0.5
22 Doug McDermott IND 2.5 0.6 0.4
23 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.4 1.0 0.6
24 Jarace Walker IND 1.8 1.0 1.0
25 Kendall Brown IND 1.3 0.5 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.1 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.