NBA games

NY @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
106–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY20383216106
IND29342226111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home IND
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 44 35 3 2
Jalen Brunson S 38 26 0 6
Alec Burks 21 14 4 1
Miles McBride 29 10 2 1
Josh Hart S 43 10 18 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 39 6 8 5
Precious Achiuwa S 22 5 6 0
Jericho Sims 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 35 4 7
Pascal Siakam S 31 26 7 1
Myles Turner S 35 21 10 1
Aaron Nesmith S 38 10 6 1
T.J. McConnell 19 6 3 1
Andrew Nembhard S 31 5 5 6
Isaiah Jackson 13 4 2 1
Ben Sheppard 16 2 4 1
Obi Toppin 19 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Josh Hart makes 26-foot three pointer (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jericho Sims NY
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
4 Josh Hart NY
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
9%
6 OG Anunoby NY
8%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
6%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
70%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
14%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 32.1 3.6 8.2
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.0 7.5 3.4
3 Myles Turner IND 18.3 6.5 2.8
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.9 4.8 9.3
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 15.8 4.4 2.7
6 Josh Hart NY 15.7 12.7 4.6
7 OG Anunoby NY 15.7 5.8 1.8
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.3 3.0 4.5
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 12.4 8.1 3.5
10 T.J. McConnell IND 10.9 3.0 5.2
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.6 4.0 2.1
12 Obi Toppin IND 10.4 4.7 1.8
13 Miles McBride NY 8.2 2.0 1.7
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.1 2.5 1.2
15 Alec Burks NY 4.9 2.0 1.0
16 Mamadi Diakite NY 4.7 2.2 0.6
17 Jalen Smith IND 4.7 4.2 0.7
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.4 3.6 0.5
19 Shake Milton NY 4.1 2.3 1.0
20 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.0 3.5 0.6
21 Doug McDermott IND 2.5 0.6 0.4
22 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.4 1.0 0.6
23 Jarace Walker IND 1.9 1.0 1.0
24 Jericho Sims NY 1.7 2.4 0.4
25 Kendall Brown IND 1.3 0.5 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.1 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.