NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
121–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND36371830121
NY36273631130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 34 6 9
Obi Toppin 20 20 3 1
Andrew Nembhard S 27 15 0 4
Pascal Siakam S 36 14 9 2
Ben Sheppard 20 11 0 1
T.J. McConnell 23 10 4 12
Myles Turner S 31 6 7 1
Aaron Nesmith S 34 6 1 2
Isaiah Jackson 15 5 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 32 29 2 5
Donte DiVincenzo S 44 28 6 4
OG Anunoby S 28 28 4 3
Josh Hart S 48 19 15 7
Isaiah Hartenstein S 39 14 12 8
Precious Achiuwa 28 8 5 0
Miles McBride 20 4 0 1
Alec Burks 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:52 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jericho Sims NY
17%
2 OG Anunoby NY
10%
3 Josh Hart NY
9%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
8%
7 Pascal Siakam IND
8%
8 Myles Turner IND
8%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
74%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
10%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 32.7 3.8 8.6
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.2 7.4 3.5
3 Myles Turner IND 19.9 6.2 2.8
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.9 4.7 8.8
5 Josh Hart NY 16.8 11.0 5.0
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY 15.6 4.3 2.7
7 OG Anunoby NY 14.9 5.9 1.6
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.5 3.1 4.8
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.9 7.8 3.3
10 T.J. McConnell IND 11.6 2.8 4.8
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.1 4.3 2.1
12 Obi Toppin IND 11.0 4.7 1.8
13 Miles McBride NY 8.4 2.2 1.8
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.0 2.7 1.3
15 Mamadi Diakite NY 4.8 2.2 0.6
16 Jalen Smith IND 4.6 4.2 0.7
17 Shake Milton NY 4.2 2.2 1.0
18 Alec Burks NY 3.7 1.4 0.7
19 Precious Achiuwa NY 3.6 3.4 0.7
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.5 3.3 0.5
21 Doug McDermott IND 2.7 0.6 0.4
22 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.4 1.0 0.6
23 Jarace Walker IND 2.0 1.0 1.0
24 Jericho Sims NY 1.8 2.3 0.4
25 Kendall Brown IND 1.4 0.5 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.1 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.