NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
117–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND24313230117
NY27223339121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 35 23 2 3
Pascal Siakam S 37 19 6 5
T.J. McConnell 22 18 1 3
Aaron Nesmith S 31 12 6 3
Obi Toppin 19 12 6 3
Andrew Nembhard S 29 11 2 4
Isaiah Jackson 13 8 5 1
Ben Sheppard 18 8 2 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 6 2 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 44 43 6 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 44 25 3 1
Josh Hart S 48 24 13 8
OG Anunoby S 42 13 9 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 36 13 6 4
Mitchell Robinson 12 2 2 1
Precious Achiuwa 4 1 1 0
Miles McBride 11 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jericho Sims NY
16%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
3 OG Anunoby NY
9%
4 Josh Hart NY
9%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
7 Pascal Siakam IND
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
9 Myles Turner IND
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
74%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
10%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 33.6 3.7 8.3
2 Pascal Siakam IND 21.7 7.6 3.1
3 Myles Turner IND 19.7 7.1 2.6
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.5 4.7 8.8
5 OG Anunoby NY 16.0 5.6 1.5
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY 15.5 4.3 3.2
7 Josh Hart NY 15.3 11.1 4.9
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 12.4 8.1 3.2
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.2 3.0 4.3
10 T.J. McConnell IND 12.0 2.6 4.7
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.1 4.2 1.9
12 Obi Toppin IND 10.4 4.6 1.7
13 Miles McBride NY 8.5 2.2 1.8
14 Ben Sheppard IND 5.0 2.4 1.0
15 Mamadi Diakite NY 4.8 2.2 0.6
16 Jalen Smith IND 4.6 4.2 0.7
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.6 5.7 0.6
18 Shake Milton NY 4.1 2.2 1.0
19 Alec Burks NY 3.7 1.3 0.7
20 Precious Achiuwa NY 2.9 3.3 0.4
21 Doug McDermott IND 2.8 0.7 0.4
22 Isaiah Jackson IND 2.6 3.2 0.3
23 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.4 0.9 0.6
24 Jarace Walker IND 2.1 1.1 1.0
25 Jericho Sims NY 1.7 2.3 0.3
26 Kendall Brown IND 1.5 0.5 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.1 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.