NBA games

DAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
95–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2330261695
OKC23392728117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home OKC
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 37 20 1 3
Luka Doncic S 41 19 6 9
Daniel Gafford S 27 16 11 1
Josh Green 25 11 4 3
P.J. Washington S 26 10 6 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 7 2 2
Dante Exum 9 5 0 0
A.J. Lawson 5 3 1 0
Dereck Lively II 13 2 4 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 17 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 29 9 9
Chet Holmgren S 31 19 7 1
Jalen Williams S 36 18 5 5
Aaron Wiggins 23 16 5 2
Jaylin Williams 17 11 9 2
Cason Wallace 23 7 3 3
Luguentz Dort S 26 7 4 1
Isaiah Joe 15 6 3 2
Josh Giddey S 17 2 5 2
Ousmane Dieng 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
5 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
4%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
23%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.3 9.6 8.9
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 26.0 5.1 4.9
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.1 5.7 5.3
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.1 5.2 4.5
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.6 8.4 1.9
6 Josh Giddey OKC 14.2 6.7 5.3
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.8 3.0 1.8
8 P.J. Washington DAL 10.1 5.8 1.4
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.2 3.7 1.0
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.7 2.8 1.6
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.5 4.1 0.8
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 6.8 6.4 0.8
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 5.1 1.8 1.2
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 4.5 1.9 0.9
15 Cason Wallace OKC 4.2 1.9 1.3
16 Josh Green DAL 3.9 2.5 0.7
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.9 1.3 0.8
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.8 2.3 1.0
19 Gordon Hayward OKC 3.6 1.9 0.8
20 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.4 0.9 0.6
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.3 1.8 1.0
22 Dante Exum DAL 3.0 1.9 1.0
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.2 0.8 0.9
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.0 1.2 0.4
25 Markieff Morris DAL 1.8 0.8 0.4
26 Dwight Powell DAL 1.5 2.2 0.5
27 Bismack Biyombo OKC 1.4 1.4 0.3
28 Mike Muscala OKC 1.2 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.