NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
98–90
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN1919283298
DEN2429142390

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 40 23 6 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 23 12 2
Anthony Edwards S 44 16 8 7
Rudy Gobert S 36 13 9 1
Naz Reid 22 11 4 1
Mike Conley S 39 10 8 4
Kyle Anderson 4 2 0 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 43 35 3 3
Nikola Jokic S 47 34 19 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 7 9 0
Christian Braun 20 5 3 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 40 5 6 3
Aaron Gordon S 42 4 4 2
Justin Holiday 9 0 0 0
Reggie Jackson 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:29 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 23-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Mike Conley MIN
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
9%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.6 12.0 8.5
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.4 5.8 6.1
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.0 4.5 5.4
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.0 8.3 3.2
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.1 6.7 4.3
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.2 6.0 1.7
7 Mike Conley MIN 12.7 3.8 5.8
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.5 10.3 1.9
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.4 4.6 1.4
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.7 2.6 2.5
11 Naz Reid MIN 9.2 3.6 1.1
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.1 2.8 2.5
13 Christian Braun DEN 5.7 2.4 0.8
14 Justin Holiday DEN 4.3 1.8 0.7
15 Luka Garza MIN 4.1 1.4 0.5
16 Reggie Jackson DEN 4.1 1.5 0.9
17 Kyle Anderson MIN 3.7 2.6 1.9
18 Peyton Watson DEN 3.6 1.8 0.6
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.4 2.2 0.6
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.2 2.8 0.6
21 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.0 1.2 1.2
22 Josh Minott MIN 2.8 1.3 0.7
23 Monte Morris MIN 2.8 1.4 1.1
24 Julian Strawther DEN 2.4 1.1 0.6
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.3 0.8 0.5
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.3 0.9 0.8
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.2 1.2 0.6
28 T.J. Warren MIN 1.8 1.1 0.5
29 Leonard Miller MIN 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.