NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
70–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN142621970
MIN31282729115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 22 9 2
Aaron Gordon S 28 12 8 4
Jamal Murray S 33 10 2 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 28 9 4 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 8 6 1
Zeke Nnaji 5 2 0 0
Julian Strawther 9 2 1 0
Christian Braun 18 2 3 1
Jalen Pickett 5 2 1 1
Peyton Watson 10 1 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 34 27 4 4
Jaden McDaniels S 31 21 4 1
Mike Conley S 31 13 4 5
Naz Reid 22 10 11 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 10 13 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17 9 0 1
Rudy Gobert S 29 8 14 2
Luka Garza 8 8 2 0
Kyle Anderson 11 4 3 3
Monte Morris 9 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes alley oop dunk shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
16%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
7%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
7%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
44%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
10%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.9 6.1 6.4
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.4 12.2 8.3
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.8 4.6 5.7
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.2 7.7 3.1
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.9 6.9 4.4
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.0 6.2 1.6
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.2 10.5 1.7
8 Mike Conley MIN 12.8 3.8 6.0
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.6 4.2 1.4
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.7 2.5 2.6
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.4 2.7 2.3
12 Naz Reid MIN 9.4 3.0 1.2
13 Christian Braun DEN 5.6 2.6 0.7
14 Reggie Jackson DEN 4.1 1.6 1.0
15 Justin Holiday DEN 4.0 1.8 0.6
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 3.7 2.4 2.0
17 Monte Morris MIN 3.1 1.4 1.0
18 Peyton Watson DEN 2.9 1.8 0.4
19 Luka Garza MIN 2.7 0.9 0.3
20 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.3 0.8 0.9
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.2 1.7 0.3
22 Josh Minott MIN 2.0 0.7 0.5
23 T.J. Warren MIN 2.0 1.2 0.5
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 1.9 2.5 0.3
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.7 0.5 0.3
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.3 0.4 0.5
27 Julian Strawther DEN 1.3 0.7 0.3
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.2 0.7 0.4
29 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 0.9 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.