NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
97–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN2618302397
DEN28223824112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 23 6 4
Anthony Edwards S 44 18 4 9
Rudy Gobert S 40 18 11 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 39 14 2 5
Jaden McDaniels S 31 9 3 3
Naz Reid 20 7 3 0
Monte Morris 12 6 2 3
Kyle Anderson 16 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 41 40 7 13
Aaron Gordon S 34 18 10 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 38 16 5 4
Jamal Murray S 41 16 1 4
Christian Braun 28 10 5 2
Reggie Jackson 7 6 0 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 6 7 1
Justin Holiday 15 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 15-foot two point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
24%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.6 12.2 8.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.2 6.1 5.7
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.0 4.8 5.8
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.3 7.6 3.3
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.6 6.5 4.5
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.4 5.9 1.9
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.1 11.1 1.6
8 Mike Conley MIN 13.1 3.9 6.0
9 Naz Reid MIN 10.5 3.1 1.4
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.2 4.0 1.2
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.5 2.5 2.3
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 8.6 2.6 2.2
13 Christian Braun DEN 5.8 2.8 0.9
14 Reggie Jackson DEN 4.5 1.4 1.2
15 Justin Holiday DEN 4.2 1.5 0.7
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 3.6 2.5 1.6
17 Peyton Watson DEN 3.0 1.8 0.4
18 Luka Garza MIN 2.8 1.0 0.3
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.3 0.9 0.9
20 Monte Morris MIN 2.2 1.1 0.6
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.2 1.7 0.4
22 Josh Minott MIN 2.0 0.8 0.5
23 T.J. Warren MIN 2.0 1.3 0.5
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.0 2.4 0.3
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.7 0.4 0.3
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.4 0.4 0.6
27 Julian Strawther DEN 1.4 0.7 0.4
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.3 0.8 0.3
29 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.0 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.