NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
115–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29352625115
MIN24253028107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 35 7 7
Aaron Gordon S 41 27 7 6
Jamal Murray S 39 19 5 8
Christian Braun 25 11 3 1
Justin Holiday 19 10 3 0
Reggie Jackson 9 6 2 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 4 3 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 3 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 45 44 5 5
Mike Conley S 34 15 2 9
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 13 12 3
Naz Reid 19 11 4 0
Jaden McDaniels S 38 11 2 0
Rudy Gobert S 35 11 14 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 2 3 3
Kyle Anderson 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
32%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.8 12.3 8.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.0 6.1 5.5
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.0 4.9 5.7
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.4 7.0 3.1
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.0 5.9 2.0
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.8 6.4 4.2
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.8 11.3 1.9
8 Mike Conley MIN 13.6 4.1 5.9
9 Naz Reid MIN 11.4 3.5 1.5
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.3 4.0 1.5
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.7 2.5 2.2
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 8.9 2.6 2.1
13 Christian Braun DEN 5.8 2.9 0.9
14 Collin Gillespie DEN 5.1 1.5 1.6
15 Reggie Jackson DEN 4.7 1.5 1.2
16 Justin Holiday DEN 4.1 1.6 0.8
17 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.1 2.7 1.9
18 Peyton Watson DEN 4.0 2.3 0.6
19 Luka Garza MIN 3.8 1.5 0.5
20 Monte Morris MIN 3.3 1.6 0.9
21 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.3 1.4 1.2
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.2 2.2 0.5
23 Josh Minott MIN 3.0 1.3 0.7
24 T.J. Warren MIN 3.0 1.8 0.7
25 Daishen Nix MIN 2.9 1.0 0.7
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.7 0.9 0.5
27 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.3 0.9 0.7
28 Julian Strawther DEN 2.3 1.2 0.6
29 Jay Huff DEN 2.2 1.3 0.4
30 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.0 2.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.