NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
117–90
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN28283724117
MIN2021252490

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 38 24 4 5
Nikola Jokic S 38 24 14 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 30 21 4 1
Aaron Gordon S 33 13 2 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 12 4 4
Reggie Jackson 8 6 3 0
Justin Holiday 19 6 1 1
Christian Braun 18 5 3 0
Julian Strawther 4 3 1 0
Zeke Nnaji 5 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 19 6 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 14 5 3
Jaden McDaniels S 22 10 3 0
Mike Conley S 30 10 6 6
Luka Garza 6 8 2 0
Naz Reid 21 7 1 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 26 6 0 2
Rudy Gobert S 27 6 4 1
Monte Morris 6 4 1 0
Kyle Anderson 13 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
15%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Kyle Anderson MIN
8%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
31%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.0 5.9 5.8
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.4 12.3 8.4
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.1 4.9 5.7
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 19.1 7.4 3.7
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.5 6.2 1.8
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.1 11.2 2.1
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.7 6.6 4.5
8 Mike Conley MIN 13.5 3.9 5.7
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.1 2.8 2.6
10 Naz Reid MIN 10.4 3.3 1.4
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.9 4.1 1.5
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 8.3 2.5 1.8
13 Christian Braun DEN 5.8 3.0 1.0
14 Reggie Jackson DEN 4.5 1.3 1.3
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.0 2.8 2.1
16 Peyton Watson DEN 3.9 2.3 0.7
17 Justin Holiday DEN 3.3 1.3 0.7
18 Luka Garza MIN 3.0 1.2 0.5
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.8 1.1 1.3
20 Monte Morris MIN 2.7 1.5 0.9
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.6 2.0 0.5
22 Julian Strawther DEN 2.6 1.0 0.6
23 Josh Minott MIN 2.5 0.9 0.6
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.3 0.7 0.4
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.1 1.1 0.6
26 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.0 2.4 0.3
27 T.J. Warren MIN 1.9 1.1 0.5
28 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.9 1.1 0.6
29 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.8 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.