NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
106–80
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28332124106
DEN2015252080

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 27 2 7
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 27 12 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 30 14 6 1
Naz Reid 29 14 5 0
Kyle Anderson S 26 6 9 8
Jaden McDaniels S 26 5 2 3
Mike Conley S 32 4 3 6
Josh Minott 3 3 0 0
Wendell Moore Jr. 3 2 1 0
Monte Morris 8 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 33 20 4 2
Nikola Jokic S 39 16 16 8
Justin Holiday 22 13 2 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 39 9 5 2
Jamal Murray S 36 8 13 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 28 4 3 0
Reggie Jackson 10 3 2 1
Jalen Pickett 3 2 0 0
Christian Braun 11 2 2 0
Julian Strawther 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes 3-foot hook shot (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
18%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
15%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Naz Reid MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
66%
Jumper
12%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.3 12.5 8.5
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.9 5.7 6.0
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.4 4.4 5.9
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 19.1 6.9 3.9
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.1 6.3 1.8
6 Mike Conley MIN 13.8 3.8 5.6
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.7 6.8 4.9
8 Naz Reid MIN 11.6 3.9 1.6
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.4 2.5 2.8
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.3 4.0 1.4
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.1 2.6 2.2
12 Christian Braun DEN 7.0 3.2 1.4
13 Reggie Jackson DEN 5.5 1.5 1.6
14 Peyton Watson DEN 4.8 3.0 1.0
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.0 2.4 1.6
16 Monte Morris MIN 3.6 1.8 1.1
17 Justin Holiday DEN 3.3 1.5 0.7
18 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.0 0.8 1.6
19 Luka Garza MIN 2.8 1.1 0.3
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.0 2.5 0.4
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.9 1.7 0.4
22 T.J. Warren MIN 1.8 1.1 0.4
23 Julian Strawther DEN 1.8 0.6 0.4
24 Josh Minott MIN 1.6 0.8 0.4
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.6 0.5 0.3
26 Leonard Miller MIN 1.3 0.8 0.3
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.1 0.7 0.3
28 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.1 0.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.