NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
106–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN23173333106
DEN2519272899

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 42 43 7 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 20 4 3
Naz Reid 23 16 4 3
Mike Conley S 31 14 4 10
Rudy Gobert S 35 6 13 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 23 5 0 0
Kyle Anderson 12 2 2 1
Jaden McDaniels S 39 0 8 1
Monte Morris 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 41 32 8 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 40 20 6 1
Jamal Murray S 34 17 1 4
Aaron Gordon S 33 9 3 6
Christian Braun 19 7 2 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 6 2 3
Reggie Jackson 14 5 3 1
Justin Holiday 16 3 5 0
Peyton Watson 6 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
27%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.9 12.2 8.5
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.0 5.9 5.9
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.8 4.6 5.9
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 17.7 7.5 3.5
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.9 6.0 1.8
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.6 7.2 4.7
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.2 11.2 1.8
8 Mike Conley MIN 12.6 3.4 4.9
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.3 2.7 2.7
10 Naz Reid MIN 11.1 4.4 1.2
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.7 3.6 1.3
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.6 2.4 1.9
13 Christian Braun DEN 6.1 3.0 1.3
14 Reggie Jackson DEN 5.9 1.3 1.8
15 Peyton Watson DEN 5.0 3.0 1.1
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 3.4 1.9 1.6
17 Monte Morris MIN 3.1 1.7 1.2
18 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.0 0.8 1.6
19 Justin Holiday DEN 3.0 0.9 0.8
20 Luka Garza MIN 2.9 1.1 0.3
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.0 2.5 0.4
22 T.J. Warren MIN 1.9 1.1 0.4
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.9 1.6 0.4
24 Julian Strawther DEN 1.8 0.6 0.4
25 Josh Minott MIN 1.6 0.7 0.4
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.6 0.5 0.3
27 Leonard Miller MIN 1.3 0.8 0.3
28 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.1 0.7 0.3
29 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.1 0.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.