NBA games

DAL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
88–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL1828212188
BOS28391920106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home BOS
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 43 28 12 5
Kyrie Irving S 41 15 3 9
Josh Green 22 14 2 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 10 0 0
Daniel Gafford S 11 6 3 0
P.J. Washington S 34 4 6 3
Dante Exum 9 4 0 0
Jaden Hardy 3 3 0 0
Maxi Kleber 13 2 3 1
Dereck Lively II 24 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 45 31 8 11
Jaylen Brown S 44 21 8 6
Jrue Holiday S 43 15 11 4
Derrick White S 38 14 8 1
Al Horford S 32 9 9 2
Sam Hauser 17 8 4 1
Kristaps Porzingis 16 5 1 0
Payton Pritchard 1 3 0 0
Oshae Brissett 1 0 0 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes driving layup (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
16%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
7 Al Horford BOS
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
34%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 31.5 8.5 7.4
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.2 8.8 7.8
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.7 4.9 4.3
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.0 3.3 4.2
5 Jrue Holiday BOS 16.6 6.1 4.7
6 Derrick White BOS 14.0 4.6 4.3
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 13.8 6.6 1.7
8 P.J. Washington DAL 12.1 5.6 1.4
9 Al Horford BOS 9.8 6.6 2.0
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.9 8.3 1.4
11 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.8 3.3 1.4
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.7 6.0 0.8
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 5.6 1.5 1.3
14 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 4.6 1.7 0.6
15 Josh Green DAL 4.4 2.3 1.0
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.4 1.2 1.1
17 Sam Hauser BOS 4.4 2.1 0.8
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.4 3.3 0.8
19 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.3 1.3 0.8
20 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.0 1.5 0.8
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.5 1.8 0.6
22 Luke Kornet BOS 3.2 3.0 0.7
23 Dante Exum DAL 2.8 1.1 0.6
24 Markieff Morris DAL 2.8 1.5 0.6
25 Jaden Springer BOS 2.7 1.5 0.6
26 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.6 1.4 0.5
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.6 1.8 0.6
28 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.3 1.6 0.5
29 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.2 1.4 0.6
30 Dwight Powell DAL 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.