NBA games

BOS @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
84–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2114252484
DAL34273130122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DAL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 27 15 5 3
Sam Hauser 20 14 4 0
Payton Pritchard 22 11 3 3
Jaylen Brown S 27 10 1 2
Jrue Holiday S 29 10 3 2
Oshae Brissett 15 7 3 0
Derrick White S 31 6 4 1
Xavier Tillman 7 3 1 1
Al Horford S 23 3 3 4
Svi Mykhailiuk 10 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 33 29 5 5
Kyrie Irving S 31 21 4 6
Tim Hardaway Jr. 12 15 3 1
Dereck Lively II 22 11 12 0
Dante Exum 14 10 2 0
Daniel Gafford S 10 7 4 0
P.J. Washington S 14 6 2 0
Jaden Hardy 13 5 3 4
Derrick Jones Jr. S 17 5 2 0
Maxi Kleber 23 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Layup (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
15%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
12%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
8 Al Horford BOS
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
24%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.5 9.1 8.3
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.4 5.6 4.4
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.4 8.4 6.0
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.7 3.1 4.2
5 Jrue Holiday BOS 18.0 6.2 5.0
6 Derrick White BOS 15.0 4.5 4.4
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 14.0 6.8 1.7
8 P.J. Washington DAL 12.6 6.2 1.7
9 Al Horford BOS 9.8 7.0 1.7
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.8 3.3 1.7
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.0 6.2 0.9
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.7 7.9 1.6
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 5.6 1.5 1.3
14 Neemias Queta BOS 5.0 3.9 0.8
15 Josh Green DAL 5.0 2.1 1.2
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.8 1.4 1.0
17 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 4.6 1.7 0.6
18 Sam Hauser BOS 4.5 2.0 0.8
19 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.5 1.9 0.9
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.0 1.7 0.6
21 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.4 1.1 0.6
22 Jaden Springer BOS 3.4 1.8 0.8
23 Markieff Morris DAL 3.2 1.3 0.6
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.9 1.8 0.6
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.6 1.6 0.6
26 Dante Exum DAL 2.6 1.1 0.6
27 Luke Kornet BOS 2.4 3.0 0.3
28 Oshae Brissett BOS 1.8 1.9 0.3
29 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.7 0.9 0.3
30 Dwight Powell DAL 1.2 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.