NBA games

BOS @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
106–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30203521106
DAL3120192999

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DAL
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 42 31 6 5
Jaylen Brown S 41 30 8 8
Derrick White S 42 16 5 4
Jrue Holiday S 42 9 4 5
Sam Hauser 14 9 3 1
Al Horford S 37 8 5 2
Xavier Tillman 11 3 4 0
Payton Pritchard 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 45 35 3 2
Luka Doncic S 38 27 6 6
P.J. Washington S 39 13 8 2
Dereck Lively II 30 11 13 1
Daniel Gafford S 16 6 3 1
Josh Green 22 3 3 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 16 2 3 1
Dante Exum 3 2 0 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 19 0 3 0
Jaden Hardy 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes driving layup (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
2 Luka Doncic DAL
13%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
4 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
7 Al Horford BOS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
10 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
31%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.6 9.8 8.5
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.0 8.5 6.5
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.4 5.4 3.8
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.2 3.1 4.8
5 Jrue Holiday BOS 16.3 6.1 4.6
6 Derrick White BOS 14.2 4.4 4.6
7 P.J. Washington DAL 12.9 6.6 1.6
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.1 3.6 1.6
9 Al Horford BOS 9.8 6.6 1.6
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.6 6.6 0.9
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.5 7.4 1.6
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.1 1.5 1.6
13 Neemias Queta BOS 5.0 3.9 0.8
14 Josh Green DAL 4.6 1.9 1.2
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.5 2.1 1.1
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.3 1.3 1.0
17 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.0 1.8 0.6
18 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.7 1.1 0.7
19 Sam Hauser BOS 3.4 1.6 0.6
20 Jaden Springer BOS 3.4 1.8 0.8
21 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 3.3 1.2 0.4
22 Markieff Morris DAL 3.2 1.4 0.6
23 Luke Kornet BOS 2.6 3.0 0.3
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.6 1.6 0.6
25 Dante Exum DAL 2.0 1.0 0.6
26 Oshae Brissett BOS 1.9 2.0 0.3
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.8 1.1 0.4
28 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.8 1.0 0.3
29 Dwight Powell DAL 1.3 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.