NBA games

DAL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
98–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2823232498
BOS25292922105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home BOS
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 42 32 11 11
P.J. Washington S 40 17 7 1
Kyrie Irving S 41 16 2 6
Daniel Gafford S 23 13 9 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 32 11 3 2
Josh Green 14 4 1 0
Dante Exum 11 3 1 1
Dereck Lively II 19 2 7 0
Maxi Kleber 16 0 2 0
Jaden Hardy 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 41 26 11 3
Jaylen Brown S 42 21 4 7
Jayson Tatum S 45 18 9 12
Derrick White S 38 18 5 2
Kristaps Porzingis 23 12 4 1
Al Horford S 28 5 7 2
Payton Pritchard 12 3 1 2
Sam Hauser 10 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 13-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
15%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
3 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 Luka Doncic DAL
9%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
7 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Al Horford BOS
8%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
27%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.7 9.9 8.2
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.4 9.6 8.0
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.2 5.5 3.4
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.9 3.4 4.8
5 Jrue Holiday BOS 16.1 5.8 4.6
6 Derrick White BOS 15.3 4.1 4.8
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 15.1 7.1 2.1
8 P.J. Washington DAL 13.9 6.6 1.7
9 Al Horford BOS 11.0 6.7 1.8
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 10.3 3.5 1.5
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.0 6.3 1.0
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.4 7.4 1.6
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.6 1.9 1.7
14 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.2 2.2 1.1
15 Neemias Queta BOS 5.2 3.9 0.9
16 Josh Green DAL 4.9 2.1 1.2
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.9 1.4 1.0
18 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.8 1.4 0.9
19 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 4.4 1.6 0.6
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.1 1.8 0.6
21 Sam Hauser BOS 4.1 1.8 0.8
22 Luke Kornet BOS 3.6 3.4 0.6
23 Markieff Morris DAL 3.4 1.4 0.6
24 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.9 2.4 0.5
25 Dante Exum DAL 2.7 1.2 0.6
26 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 1.6 0.5
27 Jaden Springer BOS 2.1 1.0 0.6
28 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.9 1.1 0.3
29 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.9 1.0 0.5
30 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.4 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.