NBA games

DAL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
89–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2022242389
BOS37262321107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home BOS
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 30 10 1
P.J. Washington S 36 14 8 1
Jaden Hardy 11 13 3 1
Kyrie Irving S 37 12 3 2
Daniel Gafford S 14 8 3 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 29 5 6 0
Josh Green 20 3 3 0
Maxi Kleber 19 2 0 1
Dereck Lively II 18 2 5 1
Dwight Powell 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 22 6 2
Kristaps Porzingis 21 20 6 0
Jayson Tatum S 42 16 11 5
Derrick White S 35 15 2 5
Jrue Holiday S 35 12 8 5
Al Horford S 30 10 7 3
Sam Hauser 16 8 4 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 3 2 0 0
Luke Kornet 3 2 1 0
Payton Pritchard 16 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Al Horford · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Al Horford makes 1-foot driving dunk (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
2 Luka Doncic DAL
10%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
4 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
6 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
8 Al Horford BOS
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
25%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.0 9.9 7.6
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.2 9.8 5.8
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.6 5.2 3.2
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 20.2 3.4 5.3
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 15.4 7.5 2.3
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.6 5.1 4.3
7 Derrick White BOS 14.1 3.8 4.5
8 P.J. Washington DAL 14.0 6.7 1.8
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.9 3.3 1.4
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.7 6.5 0.9
11 Al Horford BOS 8.8 6.2 1.6
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.5 7.0 1.3
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.6 1.6 1.4
14 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.1 1.8 0.6
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.0 2.0 0.9
16 Josh Green DAL 4.0 1.5 1.0
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.6 0.9 0.8
18 Neemias Queta BOS 3.6 2.9 0.6
19 Markieff Morris DAL 3.4 1.4 0.7
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.4 0.9 0.8
21 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 3.2 1.3 0.4
22 Sam Hauser BOS 3.2 1.4 0.5
23 Luke Kornet BOS 2.5 2.4 0.3
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.1 1.1 0.3
25 Jaden Springer BOS 2.1 1.0 0.6
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.9 1.0 0.5
27 Oshae Brissett BOS 1.8 1.9 0.3
28 Dante Exum DAL 1.7 0.8 0.4
29 Dwight Powell DAL 1.4 1.9 0.4
30 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.3 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.