NBA games

ORL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
94–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2429152694
CLE18253330106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CLE
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 42 38 16 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 35 13 7 1
Jalen Suggs S 40 10 9 4
Cole Anthony 13 8 2 1
Markelle Fultz 13 8 1 0
Franz Wagner S 35 6 6 6
Gary Harris S 27 6 2 1
Moritz Wagner 12 3 2 0
Jonathan Isaac 18 2 2 1
Joe Ingles 6 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 45 39 9 5
Caris LeVert 30 15 5 4
Max Strus S 32 13 3 1
Darius Garland S 30 12 3 4
Evan Mobley S 41 11 16 1
Isaac Okoro S 33 8 3 1
Sam Merrill 11 8 2 1
Marcus Morris Sr. 7 0 2 0
Tristan Thompson 7 0 4 2
Georges Niang 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes 17-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
6 Max Strus CLE
7%
7 Darius Garland CLE
7%
8 Evan Mobley CLE
7%
9 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE
6%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
34%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.0 4.5 5.2
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.6 8.1 5.3
3 Franz Wagner ORL 21.8 6.3 3.4
4 Darius Garland CLE 19.6 3.9 6.0
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.5 10.4 2.2
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.2 4.2 3.1
7 Evan Mobley CLE 13.6 8.0 2.2
8 Caris LeVert CLE 11.1 3.2 2.1
9 Max Strus CLE 10.8 5.3 4.2
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.1 4.4 0.9
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 6.9 4.6 1.1
12 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.9 2.4 1.4
13 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.8 5.8 0.9
14 Cole Anthony ORL 6.7 2.3 1.7
15 Markelle Fultz ORL 6.4 2.6 1.4
16 Georges Niang CLE 6.2 1.9 1.1
17 Gary Harris ORL 5.9 2.0 1.2
18 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 5.5 2.0 0.8
19 Joe Ingles ORL 4.0 2.0 1.9
20 Sam Merrill CLE 3.7 1.0 1.1
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.5 0.8 0.3
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.5 1.6 0.6
23 Anthony Black ORL 2.3 0.9 0.4
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 1.9 1.5 0.4
25 Damian Jones CLE 1.9 1.1 0.4
26 Jett Howard ORL 1.5 0.7 0.4
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.