NBA games

CLE @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
96–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE2524291896
ORL29242030103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ORL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 42 50 4 4
Darius Garland S 43 21 7 5
Max Strus S 39 10 8 1
Isaac Okoro 24 4 1 1
Evan Mobley S 34 3 6 0
Georges Niang 11 3 0 1
Tristan Thompson 12 2 2 0
Marcus Morris Sr. S 27 2 8 2
Caris LeVert 7 1 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 42 27 8 4
Franz Wagner S 42 26 5 2
Jalen Suggs S 35 22 6 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 36 11 9 2
Cole Anthony 19 9 3 1
Markelle Fultz 23 6 2 4
Moritz Wagner 12 2 6 0
Joe Ingles 8 0 0 2
Jonathan Isaac S 23 0 9 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
7 Max Strus CLE
8%
8 Darius Garland CLE
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
6%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
46%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.3 8.0 5.6
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.5 4.1 5.4
3 Franz Wagner ORL 22.1 6.0 3.8
4 Darius Garland CLE 19.4 3.6 6.0
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.5 10.4 2.2
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.2 4.0 3.2
7 Evan Mobley CLE 14.0 7.3 2.6
8 Caris LeVert CLE 12.2 3.3 2.2
9 Max Strus CLE 10.2 5.0 4.2
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.1 4.1 0.9
11 Markelle Fultz ORL 7.4 2.9 1.3
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 6.9 4.2 1.3
13 Cole Anthony ORL 6.7 2.3 1.7
14 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.6 4.9 0.9
15 Gary Harris ORL 6.5 2.3 1.5
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.2 2.1 1.3
17 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 5.0 1.7 0.7
18 Georges Niang CLE 4.9 1.7 0.7
19 Joe Ingles ORL 4.7 2.2 2.4
20 Sam Merrill CLE 4.5 1.4 1.2
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.8 0.8 0.4
22 Anthony Black ORL 2.5 0.9 0.5
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.2 1.3 0.7
24 Emoni Bates CLE 2.1 0.5 0.6
25 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.1 1.6 0.5
26 Damian Jones CLE 1.9 1.1 0.3
27 Jett Howard ORL 1.7 0.8 0.5
28 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.5 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.