NBA games

ORL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
103–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL23242333103
CLE33152729104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CLE
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 39 8 4
Franz Wagner S 38 14 5 6
Jalen Suggs S 39 13 5 0
Moritz Wagner 15 8 2 0
Jonathan Isaac 22 7 5 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 33 7 11 2
Markelle Fultz 15 7 2 3
Joe Ingles 10 6 3 1
Cole Anthony 12 2 2 1
Gary Harris S 19 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 40 28 6 2
Darius Garland S 39 23 5 5
Max Strus S 40 16 6 5
Evan Mobley S 39 14 13 4
Marcus Morris Sr. 26 12 3 1
Isaac Okoro S 23 8 4 2
Caris LeVert 19 3 1 1
Tristan Thompson 9 0 1 3
Sam Merrill 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot (Franz Wagner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
6 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
7 Darius Garland CLE
8%
8 Max Strus CLE
7%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
6%
10 Gary Harris ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
20%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.4 8.0 6.0
2 Franz Wagner ORL 22.6 6.2 3.6
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.9 3.9 5.9
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.8 10.5 2.4
5 Darius Garland CLE 17.6 3.5 6.2
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.3 3.6 3.3
7 Evan Mobley CLE 15.1 7.0 2.6
8 Caris LeVert CLE 14.8 3.9 2.8
9 Max Strus CLE 10.4 5.6 4.7
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.7 4.4 0.8
11 Markelle Fultz ORL 7.7 3.2 1.4
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 6.8 3.7 1.2
13 Gary Harris ORL 6.4 2.2 1.5
14 Cole Anthony ORL 6.4 2.2 1.7
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.2 4.8 1.0
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.0 1.8 1.2
17 Georges Niang CLE 5.4 2.0 1.0
18 Sam Merrill CLE 4.7 1.3 1.5
19 Joe Ingles ORL 4.2 1.8 2.4
20 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 3.5 1.3 0.6
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.3 1.1 0.5
22 Anthony Black ORL 3.0 1.2 0.7
23 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.6 1.9 0.6
24 Jett Howard ORL 2.2 1.0 0.7
25 Damian Jones CLE 2.2 1.2 0.4
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.0 0.9 0.5
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.7 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.