NBA games

CLE @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
89–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE2337101989
ORL22293724112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ORL
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 29 21 9 0
Donovan Mitchell S 36 18 1 6
Evan Mobley S 32 14 9 3
Darius Garland S 32 14 3 6
Max Strus S 30 7 1 3
Caris LeVert 26 5 1 3
Marcus Morris Sr. 6 4 3 0
Tristan Thompson 6 4 0 0
Georges Niang 17 2 0 0
Isaac Okoro 21 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 40 34 13 4
Jonathan Isaac 20 14 7 1
Jalen Suggs S 29 12 2 3
Markelle Fultz 19 12 4 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 24 11 5 1
Paolo Banchero S 29 9 4 5
Moritz Wagner 15 7 4 2
Gary Harris S 24 3 2 1
Chuma Okeke 4 3 0 0
Cole Anthony 15 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · Layup (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 1-foot two point shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
6 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
7 Darius Garland CLE
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
9%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
6%
10 Gary Harris ORL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
43%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.2 7.9 6.1
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.2 4.1 5.4
3 Franz Wagner ORL 20.7 5.5 3.7
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.9 10.8 2.7
5 Darius Garland CLE 16.9 3.3 6.1
6 Caris LeVert CLE 15.9 4.3 3.0
7 Evan Mobley CLE 15.8 6.7 2.7
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.9 3.8 3.2
9 Max Strus CLE 10.7 5.9 4.8
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.5 4.4 0.9
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 7.9 4.4 1.4
12 Markelle Fultz ORL 7.8 3.1 1.4
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.5 2.4 1.3
14 Gary Harris ORL 7.0 2.6 1.7
15 Cole Anthony ORL 6.9 2.3 1.9
16 Sam Merrill CLE 6.2 1.8 1.5
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.2 4.8 1.0
18 Georges Niang CLE 6.1 2.4 1.0
19 Joe Ingles ORL 4.9 2.3 2.5
20 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 4.7 1.7 0.7
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.1 1.3 0.6
22 Anthony Black ORL 3.6 1.5 0.8
23 Damian Jones CLE 3.1 1.8 0.5
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.1 2.2 0.7
25 Jett Howard ORL 3.0 1.3 0.7
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.4 1.7 0.6
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.4 1.3 0.6
28 Trevelin Queen ORL 2.2 1.0 0.7
29 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.4 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.