NBA games

CLE @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
83–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE2124162283
ORL31303525121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ORL
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 24 15 8 0
Caris LeVert 29 15 2 3
Donovan Mitchell S 27 13 5 7
Evan Mobley S 22 10 2 1
Sam Merrill 22 9 2 2
Georges Niang 18 7 3 0
Darius Garland S 31 5 3 6
Marcus Morris Sr. 9 5 2 0
Max Strus S 24 4 1 1
Tristan Thompson 10 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 29 31 14 5
Jalen Suggs S 28 24 4 3
Franz Wagner S 30 16 5 8
Markelle Fultz 17 11 2 0
Cole Anthony 16 10 1 3
Jonathan Isaac 16 8 2 0
Jett Howard 6 5 0 0
Anthony Black 7 4 2 2
Caleb Houstan 7 3 2 0
Chuma Okeke 6 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
7 Darius Garland CLE
10%
8 Max Strus CLE
7%
9 Jonathan Isaac ORL
7%
10 Gary Harris ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
34%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.1 7.1 6.2
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.4 4.2 5.3
3 Franz Wagner ORL 20.4 5.2 3.2
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.3 10.5 2.8
5 Darius Garland CLE 17.6 3.4 6.4
6 Evan Mobley CLE 16.5 6.8 2.7
7 Caris LeVert CLE 15.5 4.4 3.5
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.6 3.5 3.5
9 Max Strus CLE 10.9 6.1 5.1
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.2 3.8 1.0
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.8 5.2 1.8
12 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.8 2.2 1.2
13 Gary Harris ORL 6.9 2.4 1.8
14 Cole Anthony ORL 6.7 2.4 1.8
15 Markelle Fultz ORL 6.2 2.9 1.6
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.6 4.8 1.0
17 Georges Niang CLE 5.5 2.4 1.1
18 Sam Merrill CLE 5.0 1.5 1.6
19 Joe Ingles ORL 4.8 2.1 2.6
20 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 3.8 1.4 0.6
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.8 1.1 0.6
22 Damian Jones CLE 2.5 1.2 0.3
23 Anthony Black ORL 2.2 0.7 0.5
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 1.9 1.2 0.4
25 Jett Howard ORL 1.7 0.6 0.4
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.5 1.5 0.4
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.