NBA games

ORL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
86–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL1826212186
CLE3028221696

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CLE
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 41 21 3 3
Franz Wagner S 38 18 7 2
Gary Harris S 34 14 4 2
Moritz Wagner 21 12 6 0
Jalen Suggs S 29 9 6 5
Wendell Carter Jr. 18 6 5 3
Jonathan Isaac S 20 3 4 0
Joe Ingles 14 2 1 3
Markelle Fultz 6 1 0 0
Caleb Houstan 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 23 8 4
Evan Mobley S 32 17 7 1
Jarrett Allen S 39 16 20 3
Darius Garland S 32 15 3 4
Isaac Okoro 25 10 0 1
Caris LeVert 25 8 1 1
Max Strus S 37 7 9 4
Georges Niang 14 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
6 Darius Garland CLE
10%
7 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
8%
9 Jonathan Isaac ORL
7%
10 Gary Harris ORL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
46%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
20%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.6 7.6 6.1
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.8 3.8 5.3
3 Franz Wagner ORL 19.1 5.1 3.0
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.4 10.2 2.8
5 Darius Garland CLE 17.7 3.6 7.5
6 Evan Mobley CLE 16.8 7.2 3.1
7 Caris LeVert CLE 15.4 4.9 4.1
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.6 3.4 3.5
9 Max Strus CLE 12.0 5.5 5.0
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.3 5.9 1.6
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.8 3.4 1.0
12 Markelle Fultz ORL 8.4 3.3 2.1
13 Cole Anthony ORL 8.2 2.3 2.0
14 Georges Niang CLE 8.2 2.6 1.3
15 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.6 2.5 1.4
16 Gary Harris ORL 7.0 2.3 1.6
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.2 4.8 1.1
18 Joe Ingles ORL 5.9 2.2 2.7
19 Sam Merrill CLE 5.9 1.9 1.9
20 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 4.0 1.5 0.6
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.2 0.8 0.4
22 Damian Jones CLE 2.6 1.2 0.3
23 Anthony Black ORL 2.3 0.9 0.5
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.0 1.3 0.4
25 Jett Howard ORL 1.8 0.7 0.4
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.6 1.6 0.5
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.