NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
98–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2423312098
IND33263427120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 35 28 2 4
Brook Lopez S 31 20 5 1
Bobby Portis S 36 20 15 2
Khris Middleton S 38 14 8 3
Patrick Beverley S 40 6 2 5
Pat Connaughton 16 3 5 1
Malik Beasley 23 2 2 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 5 2 1 0
Chris Livingston 3 2 0 0
Danilo Gallinari 4 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Obi Toppin 24 21 8 2
T.J. McConnell 23 20 2 9
Pascal Siakam S 35 19 7 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 17 6 10
Aaron Nesmith S 30 15 3 1
Andrew Nembhard S 37 14 5 4
Myles Turner S 23 5 5 1
Isaiah Jackson 10 4 4 0
Ben Sheppard 19 3 4 1
Kendall Brown 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Myles Turner IND
12%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
5 Bobby Portis MIL
9%
6 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
7 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Patrick Beverley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
20%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Damian Lillard MIL 25.6 4.2 5.9
2 Khris Middleton MIL 23.2 6.9 5.4
3 Pascal Siakam IND 21.8 7.6 3.1
4 Myles Turner IND 20.3 7.0 2.6
5 Bobby Portis MIL 18.4 9.3 2.0
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.1 4.8 9.4
7 Brook Lopez MIL 15.2 4.5 1.7
8 T.J. McConnell IND 12.4 3.2 5.6
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.0 2.9 4.7
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.9 4.5 2.2
11 Obi Toppin IND 10.7 4.7 1.8
12 Patrick Beverley MIL 9.9 4.6 4.5
13 Malik Beasley MIL 9.2 2.7 1.2
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.5 2.5 1.4
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.1 2.6 1.8
16 Jalen Smith IND 5.4 4.7 0.8
17 AJ Green MIL 4.9 1.7 0.8
18 Jae Crowder MIL 4.8 2.5 1.0
19 Danilo Gallinari MIL 4.2 2.0 0.8
20 Doug McDermott IND 4.0 1.1 0.7
21 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.6 3.4 0.6
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.5 1.4 0.6
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.4 1.7 1.3
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.3 2.2 1.1
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 0.9 0.6
26 Chris Livingston MIL 1.3 0.9 0.3
27 Kendall Brown IND 1.3 0.5 0.3
28 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.