NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
92–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND3117192592
MIL23303428115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 16 4 6
Myles Turner S 31 13 5 3
Obi Toppin 23 12 6 4
Pascal Siakam S 34 12 4 2
Andrew Nembhard S 32 12 3 5
Aaron Nesmith S 27 7 2 1
Ben Sheppard 24 7 4 0
T.J. McConnell 16 6 3 3
Isaiah Jackson 9 4 4 0
Doug McDermott 5 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 40 29 12 5
Bobby Portis S 39 29 10 1
Malik Beasley S 28 18 4 0
Patrick Beverley S 36 13 4 12
Brook Lopez S 31 12 3 0
Pat Connaughton 32 9 4 4
Danilo Gallinari 21 4 6 0
MarJon Beauchamp 1 1 1 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 7 0 0 1
AJ Green 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 2-foot driving dunk (Khris Middleton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Khris Middleton MIL
12%
4 Bobby Portis MIL
11%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Patrick Beverley MIL
9%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
9 Myles Turner IND
8%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
21%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Khris Middleton MIL 23.1 7.0 5.5
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.3 8.1 3.2
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.6 4.7 9.4
4 Myles Turner IND 19.4 7.5 2.3
5 Bobby Portis MIL 16.5 9.2 1.9
6 Brook Lopez MIL 15.5 4.4 1.9
7 T.J. McConnell IND 12.3 3.2 5.5
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.9 4.5 2.2
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.0 2.7 4.4
10 Obi Toppin IND 10.5 4.9 1.6
11 Patrick Beverley MIL 10.1 4.6 3.7
12 Malik Beasley MIL 8.5 2.6 1.3
13 Ben Sheppard IND 6.3 2.3 1.4
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.8 2.6 1.8
15 Jalen Smith IND 5.5 4.9 0.7
16 AJ Green MIL 5.4 1.7 0.8
17 Jae Crowder MIL 5.3 2.6 1.0
18 Danilo Gallinari MIL 4.4 1.6 0.9
19 Doug McDermott IND 3.9 1.0 0.7
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.5 3.4 0.6
21 Jarace Walker IND 3.3 1.7 1.1
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.3 1.3 0.6
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.3 2.3 1.1
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.4 1.1 0.7
25 Chris Livingston MIL 1.4 0.9 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.6 0.5
27 Kendall Brown IND 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.