NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
113–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL33312128113
IND33343128126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brook Lopez S 39 27 9 1
Khris Middleton S 40 25 10 5
Malik Beasley S 34 20 3 2
Patrick Beverley S 21 9 1 4
AJ Green 21 8 3 1
Danilo Gallinari 13 6 3 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 25 6 6 7
Pat Connaughton 22 4 3 3
Bobby Portis S 7 4 3 0
Jae Crowder 13 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 38 29 9 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 24 4 4
Andrew Nembhard S 38 15 3 9
Aaron Nesmith S 38 13 3 1
Pascal Siakam S 40 13 9 7
Obi Toppin 17 13 2 0
T.J. McConnell 18 8 4 8
Ben Sheppard 14 8 2 0
Doug McDermott 3 3 0 0
Jarace Walker 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bobby Portis MIL
13%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
12%
5 Khris Middleton MIL
12%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
9 Patrick Beverley MIL
8%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
22%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 22.3 8.1 3.0
2 Khris Middleton MIL 22.2 6.4 5.8
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.0 4.8 9.6
4 Bobby Portis MIL 18.6 9.6 2.3
5 Myles Turner IND 17.9 7.2 2.2
6 Brook Lopez MIL 15.1 4.4 1.9
7 T.J. McConnell IND 12.7 3.2 5.5
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.0 4.7 2.2
9 Obi Toppin IND 11.0 4.9 1.9
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.7 2.7 3.9
11 Patrick Beverley MIL 9.4 4.6 3.2
12 Malik Beasley MIL 7.5 2.5 1.3
13 Jalen Smith IND 6.5 5.1 1.0
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.3 2.9 2.0
15 Ben Sheppard IND 6.1 2.3 1.4
16 Jae Crowder MIL 5.4 2.7 1.0
17 AJ Green MIL 4.8 1.7 0.7
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.5 3.5 0.6
19 Jarace Walker IND 2.9 1.7 0.9
20 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.8 0.9 0.3
21 Doug McDermott IND 2.7 0.7 0.5
22 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.6 0.7 0.4
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.5 1.9 0.7
24 Kendall Brown IND 1.6 0.6 0.4
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.3 0.6 0.4
26 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.