NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
118–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIL223328287118
IND3928232110121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 41 42 10 5
Damian Lillard S 45 28 1 8
Bobby Portis S 44 17 18 0
Brook Lopez S 39 14 4 3
Patrick Beverley S 42 11 2 1
AJ Green 14 4 3 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 17 2 3 0
Jae Crowder 2 0 0 0
Pat Connaughton 13 0 2 2
Malik Beasley 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 42 29 9 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 46 18 10 16
Pascal Siakam S 42 17 9 4
Andrew Nembhard S 40 16 5 4
Obi Toppin 17 15 6 0
Aaron Nesmith S 43 13 8 3
T.J. McConnell 16 7 1 2
Ben Sheppard 17 6 1 2
Jalen Smith 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 Bobby Portis MIL
10%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
10 Patrick Beverley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
48%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Damian Lillard MIL 24.2 4.6 5.8
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.1 8.3 3.2
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.4 4.7 9.8
4 Khris Middleton MIL 18.2 6.1 5.6
5 Bobby Portis MIL 17.6 9.0 2.3
6 Myles Turner IND 17.2 6.8 2.2
7 Brook Lopez MIL 14.0 4.3 1.7
8 T.J. McConnell IND 13.5 3.4 5.5
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.8 4.4 2.0
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.2 2.5 3.7
11 Obi Toppin IND 10.2 4.8 1.7
12 Patrick Beverley MIL 8.3 5.0 3.5
13 Malik Beasley MIL 8.1 2.7 1.3
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.0 3.3 2.3
15 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 2.4 1.5
16 Jae Crowder MIL 6.0 2.9 1.0
17 Jalen Smith IND 5.9 5.2 0.8
18 AJ Green MIL 4.8 1.4 0.7
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.9 3.6 0.7
20 Jarace Walker IND 3.8 2.0 1.1
21 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.7 1.3 0.5
22 Doug McDermott IND 2.9 0.8 0.5
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 2.0 0.7
24 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.7 0.8 0.4
25 Kendall Brown IND 2.3 1.0 0.6
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.4 0.7 0.3
27 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.