NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
125–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND30303233125
MIL26292825108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 37 37 11 6
Myles Turner S 34 22 7 6
Andrew Nembhard S 32 20 4 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 12 4 12
Aaron Nesmith S 36 11 5 7
Obi Toppin 21 9 8 0
Ben Sheppard 23 8 3 0
T.J. McConnell 17 6 2 4
Kendall Brown 1 0 0 0
Jarace Walker 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 39 34 4 5
Brook Lopez S 29 22 1 3
Khris Middleton S 36 15 5 6
Bobby Portis S 30 14 11 2
Patrick Beverley S 34 5 4 3
Pat Connaughton 19 5 7 2
AJ Green 15 5 3 1
Malik Beasley 10 4 2 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 5 2 1 2
Jae Crowder 15 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
5 Khris Middleton MIL
10%
6 Bobby Portis MIL
10%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Patrick Beverley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
47%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Damian Lillard MIL 25.0 4.6 6.5
2 Pascal Siakam IND 21.6 8.2 3.0
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.2 4.6 8.3
4 Khris Middleton MIL 18.3 6.2 5.8
5 Bobby Portis MIL 17.9 8.4 2.5
6 Myles Turner IND 16.8 6.6 1.7
7 T.J. McConnell IND 14.6 3.4 5.3
8 Brook Lopez MIL 13.7 4.6 1.5
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.1 4.3 1.7
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.9 2.5 3.4
11 Obi Toppin IND 9.6 4.1 1.7
12 Malik Beasley MIL 8.8 2.6 1.4
13 Patrick Beverley MIL 8.1 4.7 3.5
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.0 3.2 2.5
15 Jalen Smith IND 6.6 5.4 0.9
16 Jae Crowder MIL 6.0 2.9 1.1
17 Ben Sheppard IND 5.7 2.2 1.4
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.5 4.0 0.8
19 AJ Green MIL 4.4 1.4 0.7
20 Doug McDermott IND 3.6 1.1 0.6
21 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.7 0.8 0.4
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.5 0.8 0.4
23 Jarace Walker IND 2.4 1.5 0.8
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.5 1.5 0.4
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.4 0.7 0.4
26 Chris Livingston MIL 1.3 0.8 0.3
27 Kendall Brown IND 1.2 0.6 0.3
28 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.