NBA games

NY @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
118–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY36153235118
PHI22322932115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHI
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 44 41 3 12
Donte DiVincenzo S 48 23 4 7
OG Anunoby S 45 19 9 0
Josh Hart S 46 16 14 7
Isaiah Hartenstein S 30 14 9 2
Miles McBride 9 3 0 0
Mitchell Robinson 18 2 9 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 40 39 13 2
Buddy Hield 21 20 4 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 43 17 5 1
Tyrese Maxey S 43 17 5 5
Nicolas Batum 28 16 7 2
Cameron Payne 16 6 2 3
Tobias Harris S 29 0 4 3
Kyle Lowry S 13 0 2 3
Paul Reed 8 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
20%
2 Jericho Sims NY
13%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
9%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
8%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
6 Josh Hart NY
7%
7 OG Anunoby NY
7%
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
7%
9 Tobias Harris PHI
6%
10 Mo Bamba PHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
47%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 37.5 3.8 9.4
2 Joel Embiid PHI 30.1 10.5 6.1
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.6 3.7 6.1
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 14.9 4.1 2.8
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.4 5.1 2.0
6 Josh Hart NY 14.0 10.6 5.2
7 OG Anunoby NY 13.2 5.2 1.6
8 Tobias Harris PHI 13.2 7.5 2.2
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.3 8.3 3.2
10 Miles McBride NY 10.3 2.8 2.0
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 8.1 3.5 3.4
12 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.7 4.5 1.5
13 De'Anthony Melton PHI 5.7 1.9 1.4
14 Paul Reed PHI 5.2 4.3 1.0
15 Buddy Hield PHI 5.1 1.8 1.1
16 Cameron Payne PHI 4.9 1.7 1.8
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.7 5.7 0.6
18 KJ Martin PHI 3.9 2.7 1.0
19 Mo Bamba PHI 3.9 4.6 0.6
20 Alec Burks NY 3.3 1.2 0.7
21 D.J. Wilson PHI 3.3 1.5 0.9
22 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.1 1.5 0.3
23 Precious Achiuwa NY 3.0 3.6 0.4
24 Jacob Toppin NY 2.9 1.4 0.5
25 Ricky Council IV PHI 2.8 0.7 0.7
26 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 2.6 1.0 1.4
27 Shake Milton NY 2.5 1.6 0.7
28 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 2.4 1.0 0.5
29 Terquavion Smith PHI 1.8 0.5 0.5
30 Jericho Sims NY 1.5 2.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.