NBA games

PHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
112–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHI2617262815112
NY173221279106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NY
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 52 46 5 9
Tobias Harris S 49 19 8 1
Joel Embiid S 48 19 16 10
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 39 14 4 0
Nicolas Batum 33 8 8 1
Cameron Payne 14 6 2 1
Kyle Lowry S 26 0 2 5
Paul Reed 4 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 51 40 3 6
Josh Hart S 53 18 9 4
OG Anunoby S 50 17 6 0
Miles McBride 33 14 4 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 26 9 4 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 6 7 4
Mitchell Robinson 25 2 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jericho Sims NY
15%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
6 Josh Hart NY
8%
7 Tobias Harris PHI
7%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
6%
9 OG Anunoby NY
6%
10 Jalen Brunson NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
74%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
10%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 35.0 4.0 9.1
2 Joel Embiid PHI 31.1 10.1 5.7
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.2 4.3 6.5
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.5 5.5 2.3
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 15.3 4.2 3.0
6 Josh Hart NY 13.9 10.1 4.1
7 Tobias Harris PHI 13.5 7.6 2.4
8 OG Anunoby NY 13.1 4.8 1.6
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.7 8.3 3.5
10 Miles McBride NY 10.0 2.8 2.0
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 8.8 3.5 3.4
12 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.6 4.2 1.4
13 De'Anthony Melton PHI 6.5 2.2 1.6
14 Buddy Hield PHI 5.8 2.0 1.2
15 Paul Reed PHI 5.3 4.6 1.3
16 Cameron Payne PHI 4.9 1.5 1.8
17 KJ Martin PHI 4.0 2.7 0.9
18 Mo Bamba PHI 4.0 4.6 0.6
19 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.0 5.4 0.4
20 Precious Achiuwa NY 3.9 3.9 0.6
21 Alec Burks NY 3.3 1.3 0.7
22 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.0 1.5 0.3
23 Ricky Council IV PHI 2.8 0.7 0.7
24 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 2.7 1.0 1.3
25 Shake Milton NY 2.5 1.7 0.7
26 Jericho Sims NY 1.5 2.3 0.3
27 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.1 0.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.